Author: Graham Laight
Date: 06:18:50 02/06/03
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On February 06, 2003 at 09:01:45, Peter Fendrich wrote: >On February 06, 2003 at 04:59:26, Graham Laight wrote: > >>I have to admit, I tended towards the neutral in terms of how good PCs were >>against DB. I had a feeling that Bob might be correct - but the PC apologists, >>led by Amir, put what looked like a an overwhelming amount of evidence into the >>debate. >> >>Now, the truth is on the table for all to see. >> >>For all those years, Amir was arguing that DB was no better than PCs, and Bob >>Hyatt argued the reverse position. >> >>Of the 5 games played so far, DJ has won one. Therefore, there is a 1 in 5 >>chance that DJ will win tomorrow. If DJ does win, it will merely achieve the >>same result that DB achieved 6 years ago. There is a 4 in 5 probability that it >>won't - and that after 6 years of catching up time, DJ will actually achieve a >>WORSE result than DB achieved. >> >>Remember - if IBM had continued to develop DB, then, under Moore's law, it would >>be doing a continuous 2 billion nodes per second today (peaking at close to 10 >>billion nodes per second). >> >>The argument is now closed. Amir has been proven wrong. >> >>I hope Amir is going to do the gentlemanly thing and apologise for all the years >>he has been misleading us in an insistant and indignant manner. >> >>-g > >Nothing of the sort have been proven. > - The conditions are completely different. Kasparov had the opportunity to > prepare against Junior. In general he also should be stronger against > computers by now. Kasparov has said that having the program to practise against is worse than useless, because the programmers can change whatever they like, and whenever they like (except during games). I see no reason why he should now be stronger against computers. > - Your math 1 in 5, 4 in 5 and sofort is wrong (as Uri showed) As I replied to Uri, there is no way you can slice the probability equation so that DJ's chances of winning tomorrow are >= 50%. >What we seen sofar is that Junior can compete at the same level as DB but which >one is the better can't be concluded by this match. For years and years, Amir has been blasting us with "evidence" that PCs were as good as DB. Now the truth is out: with the same opponent, and with the benefit of 6 years of development, he cannot do better, and will probably do worse. >The match Fritz-Kramnik gave us the same kind of vague information with the hint >that todays PC engines are in parity with DB. More precise conclusions from >these two games are just speculations. Amir did not appear to be being speculative when he was banging on aggressively about the inferiority of DB. -g >/Peter
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