Author: Jorge Pichard
Date: 07:02:00 02/06/03
Go up one level in this thread
On February 06, 2003 at 05:44:14, Graham Laight wrote: >On February 06, 2003 at 05:18:56, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On February 06, 2003 at 04:59:26, Graham Laight wrote: >> >>>I have to admit, I tended towards the neutral in terms of how good PCs were >>>against DB. I had a feeling that Bob might be correct - but the PC apologists, >>>led by Amir, put what looked like a an overwhelming amount of evidence into the >>>debate. >>> >>>Now, the truth is on the table for all to see. >>> >>>For all those years, Amir was arguing that DB was no better than PCs, and Bob >>>Hyatt argued the reverse position. >>> >>>Of the 5 games played so far, DJ has won one. Therefore, there is a 1 in 5 >>>chance that DJ will win tomorrow. If DJ does win, it will merely achieve the >>>same result that DB achieved 6 years ago. There is a 4 in 5 probability that it >>>won't - and that after 6 years of catching up time, DJ will actually achieve a >>>WORSE result than DB achieved. >>> >>>Remember - if IBM had continued to develop DB, then, under Moore's law, it would >>>be doing a continuous 2 billion nodes per second today (peaking at close to 10 >>>billion nodes per second). >>> >>>The argument is now closed. Amir has been proven wrong. >>> >>>I hope Amir is going to do the gentlemanly thing and apologise for all the years >>>he has been misleading us in an insistant and indignant manner. >>> >>>-g >> >>I do not see how you can prove that Amir was wrong if Junior does not win. >>There are simple not enough games to prove something based only on the results. > >You may be correct - but if you are, then clearly Amir was wrong to do so much >self-righteous indignant waffling about DB's relative performance in 1997. > >>Your 1/5 chance is also not convincing because kasparov play the last game with >>black. >> >>Junior drew all the games with White so you can say that there is 100% chance >>that it is going to be a draw by this wrong logic. > >Whichever way you slice the probability calculation, DB has a probability of >winning tomorrow of less than 50% - which means that DJ will probably do worse >in the match than DB did six long years ago. > >-g I don't agree even if Deep Junior draw tomorrow, it has already proven that it is equal or better than Deeper Blue, considering that Kasparov di NOT have any practice games against Deeper blue before he played back in 1997. Plus you also have to consider that Kasparov is much better of a player than he was back then, since he has access to a varieties of top programs such as Deep Fritz 7, Shredder 7, that could also be compared to Deeper Blue strength given a fast hardware as the one being used for Deep Junior. Pichard.
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