Author: Graham Laight
Date: 07:23:18 02/06/03
Go up one level in this thread
On February 06, 2003 at 10:02:00, Jorge Pichard wrote: >On February 06, 2003 at 05:44:14, Graham Laight wrote: > >>On February 06, 2003 at 05:18:56, Uri Blass wrote: >> >>>On February 06, 2003 at 04:59:26, Graham Laight wrote: >>> >>>>I have to admit, I tended towards the neutral in terms of how good PCs were >>>>against DB. I had a feeling that Bob might be correct - but the PC apologists, >>>>led by Amir, put what looked like a an overwhelming amount of evidence into the >>>>debate. >>>> >>>>Now, the truth is on the table for all to see. >>>> >>>>For all those years, Amir was arguing that DB was no better than PCs, and Bob >>>>Hyatt argued the reverse position. >>>> >>>>Of the 5 games played so far, DJ has won one. Therefore, there is a 1 in 5 >>>>chance that DJ will win tomorrow. If DJ does win, it will merely achieve the >>>>same result that DB achieved 6 years ago. There is a 4 in 5 probability that it >>>>won't - and that after 6 years of catching up time, DJ will actually achieve a >>>>WORSE result than DB achieved. >>>> >>>>Remember - if IBM had continued to develop DB, then, under Moore's law, it would >>>>be doing a continuous 2 billion nodes per second today (peaking at close to 10 >>>>billion nodes per second). >>>> >>>>The argument is now closed. Amir has been proven wrong. >>>> >>>>I hope Amir is going to do the gentlemanly thing and apologise for all the years >>>>he has been misleading us in an insistant and indignant manner. >>>> >>>>-g >>> >>>I do not see how you can prove that Amir was wrong if Junior does not win. >>>There are simple not enough games to prove something based only on the results. >> >>You may be correct - but if you are, then clearly Amir was wrong to do so much >>self-righteous indignant waffling about DB's relative performance in 1997. >> >>>Your 1/5 chance is also not convincing because kasparov play the last game with >>>black. >>> >>>Junior drew all the games with White so you can say that there is 100% chance >>>that it is going to be a draw by this wrong logic. >> >>Whichever way you slice the probability calculation, DB has a probability of >>winning tomorrow of less than 50% - which means that DJ will probably do worse >>in the match than DB did six long years ago. >> >>-g > > I don't agree even if Deep Junior draw tomorrow, it has already proven that it >is equal or better than Deeper Blue, considering that Kasparov di NOT have any No. >practice games against Deeper blue before he played back in 1997. Plus you also >have to consider that Kasparov is much better of a player than he was back then, >since he has access to a varieties of top programs such as Deep Fritz 7, >Shredder 7, that could also be compared to Deeper Blue strength given a fast >hardware as the one being used for Deep Junior. Ah! So you admit that the PCs of 1997 were not as strong as DB!!! End of discussion - Amir has to apologise! :) -g >Pichard.
This page took 0.01 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.