Author: Uri Blass
Date: 07:27:36 02/06/03
Go up one level in this thread
On February 06, 2003 at 10:23:18, Graham Laight wrote: >On February 06, 2003 at 10:02:00, Jorge Pichard wrote: > >>On February 06, 2003 at 05:44:14, Graham Laight wrote: >> >>>On February 06, 2003 at 05:18:56, Uri Blass wrote: >>> >>>>On February 06, 2003 at 04:59:26, Graham Laight wrote: >>>> >>>>>I have to admit, I tended towards the neutral in terms of how good PCs were >>>>>against DB. I had a feeling that Bob might be correct - but the PC apologists, >>>>>led by Amir, put what looked like a an overwhelming amount of evidence into the >>>>>debate. >>>>> >>>>>Now, the truth is on the table for all to see. >>>>> >>>>>For all those years, Amir was arguing that DB was no better than PCs, and Bob >>>>>Hyatt argued the reverse position. >>>>> >>>>>Of the 5 games played so far, DJ has won one. Therefore, there is a 1 in 5 >>>>>chance that DJ will win tomorrow. If DJ does win, it will merely achieve the >>>>>same result that DB achieved 6 years ago. There is a 4 in 5 probability that it >>>>>won't - and that after 6 years of catching up time, DJ will actually achieve a >>>>>WORSE result than DB achieved. >>>>> >>>>>Remember - if IBM had continued to develop DB, then, under Moore's law, it would >>>>>be doing a continuous 2 billion nodes per second today (peaking at close to 10 >>>>>billion nodes per second). >>>>> >>>>>The argument is now closed. Amir has been proven wrong. >>>>> >>>>>I hope Amir is going to do the gentlemanly thing and apologise for all the years >>>>>he has been misleading us in an insistant and indignant manner. >>>>> >>>>>-g >>>> >>>>I do not see how you can prove that Amir was wrong if Junior does not win. >>>>There are simple not enough games to prove something based only on the results. >>> >>>You may be correct - but if you are, then clearly Amir was wrong to do so much >>>self-righteous indignant waffling about DB's relative performance in 1997. >>> >>>>Your 1/5 chance is also not convincing because kasparov play the last game with >>>>black. >>>> >>>>Junior drew all the games with White so you can say that there is 100% chance >>>>that it is going to be a draw by this wrong logic. >>> >>>Whichever way you slice the probability calculation, DB has a probability of >>>winning tomorrow of less than 50% - which means that DJ will probably do worse >>>in the match than DB did six long years ago. >>> >>>-g >> >> I don't agree even if Deep Junior draw tomorrow, it has already proven that it >>is equal or better than Deeper Blue, considering that Kasparov di NOT have any > >No. > >>practice games against Deeper blue before he played back in 1997. Plus you also >>have to consider that Kasparov is much better of a player than he was back then, >>since he has access to a varieties of top programs such as Deep Fritz 7, >>Shredder 7, that could also be compared to Deeper Blue strength given a fast >>hardware as the one being used for Deep Junior. > >Ah! > >So you admit that the PCs of 1997 were not as strong as DB!!! > >End of discussion - Amir has to apologise! :) > >-g I believe that Amir did not say that PCs of 1997 were as strong as DB. Uri
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