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Subject: Re: There Is A 1/5 Chance That DJ 2003 Is As Good As DB '97. Amir Was Wrong!

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 07:27:36 02/06/03

Go up one level in this thread


On February 06, 2003 at 10:23:18, Graham Laight wrote:

>On February 06, 2003 at 10:02:00, Jorge Pichard wrote:
>
>>On February 06, 2003 at 05:44:14, Graham Laight wrote:
>>
>>>On February 06, 2003 at 05:18:56, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>
>>>>On February 06, 2003 at 04:59:26, Graham Laight wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>I have to admit, I tended towards the neutral in terms of how good PCs were
>>>>>against DB. I had a feeling that Bob might be correct - but the PC apologists,
>>>>>led by Amir, put what looked like a an overwhelming amount of evidence into the
>>>>>debate.
>>>>>
>>>>>Now, the truth is on the table for all to see.
>>>>>
>>>>>For all those years, Amir was arguing that DB was no better than PCs, and Bob
>>>>>Hyatt argued the reverse position.
>>>>>
>>>>>Of the 5 games played so far, DJ has won one. Therefore, there is a 1 in 5
>>>>>chance that DJ will win tomorrow. If DJ does win, it will merely achieve the
>>>>>same result that DB achieved 6 years ago. There is a 4 in 5 probability that it
>>>>>won't - and that after 6 years of catching up time, DJ will actually achieve a
>>>>>WORSE result than DB achieved.
>>>>>
>>>>>Remember - if IBM had continued to develop DB, then, under Moore's law, it would
>>>>>be doing a continuous 2 billion nodes per second today (peaking at close to 10
>>>>>billion nodes per second).
>>>>>
>>>>>The argument is now closed. Amir has been proven wrong.
>>>>>
>>>>>I hope Amir is going to do the gentlemanly thing and apologise for all the years
>>>>>he has been misleading us in an insistant and indignant manner.
>>>>>
>>>>>-g
>>>>
>>>>I do not see how you can prove that Amir was wrong if Junior does not win.
>>>>There are simple not enough games to prove something based only on the results.
>>>
>>>You may be correct - but if you are, then clearly Amir was wrong to do so much
>>>self-righteous indignant waffling about DB's relative performance in 1997.
>>>
>>>>Your 1/5 chance is also not convincing because kasparov play the last game with
>>>>black.
>>>>
>>>>Junior drew all the games with White so you can say that there is 100% chance
>>>>that it is going to be a draw by this wrong logic.
>>>
>>>Whichever way you slice the probability calculation, DB has a probability of
>>>winning tomorrow of less than 50% - which means that DJ will probably do worse
>>>in the match than DB did six long years ago.
>>>
>>>-g
>>
>> I don't agree even if Deep Junior draw tomorrow, it has already proven that it
>>is equal or better than Deeper Blue, considering that Kasparov di NOT have any
>
>No.
>
>>practice games against Deeper blue before he played back in 1997. Plus you also
>>have to consider that Kasparov is much better of a player than he was back then,
>>since he has access to a varieties of top programs such as Deep Fritz 7,
>>Shredder 7, that could also be compared to Deeper Blue strength given a fast
>>hardware as the one being used for Deep Junior.
>
>Ah!
>
>So you admit that the PCs of 1997 were not as strong as DB!!!
>
>End of discussion - Amir has to apologise!   :)
>
>-g
I believe that Amir did not say that PCs of 1997 were as strong as DB.

Uri



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