Author: Uri Blass
Date: 06:30:17 02/12/03
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On February 12, 2003 at 08:30:55, Ed Schröder wrote: >On February 12, 2003 at 06:49:44, Thorsten Czub wrote: > >>The new Rebel12 BETA5 seems to be very strong. >>In games against Rebel XP REBEL.ENG >>this new effort of Ed Schröder played unbelievable >>12.5-0.5 !!!!! 12/1/0 (13) 96.2% on at 1' per move. > >It's strange indeed but still within the error margin. I once had a 14-1 case, >in the end it became about equal. But of course cases like this are the big >exceptions. Don't be surprised when you are at 50-100 games you are back at 60%. 12.5-.5 or 14-1 are clearly significant results. I do not guess that the difference is so big like the result suggest but I will be surprised if they are almost equal. If I assume 40% for white 30% draws and 30% for black then I expect 12.5-.5 or 13-0 to happen in clearly less than 0.01% of the cases. If I assume 7 games with white then I get by simple combinatoric 0.4^7*0.3^6+ 0.4^7*0.3^5*0.3*6+0.4^6*0.3^6*0.3*7 It is clearly less than 1 out of 10000 cases when the programs are equal. If I see 12.5-.5 or 14-1 then I am going to believe that one of the following happened: 1)The machine is broken 2)There is a big improvement and my guess is to expect more than 65% in more games(Note that I do not expect more than 90% because I believe that part of it has to be some luck). Thorsten found that 1 is false so I guess that 2 is correct. It is possible that with more information I will have a different opinion(for example if I know that the 12.5-.5 came only as result of a small change then I am not going to expect more than 65%) but when I do not know what you did and I see that result my guess is at least 65% for beta5. Uri
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