Author: Ed Schröder
Date: 08:58:47 02/12/03
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On February 12, 2003 at 09:30:17, Uri Blass wrote: >On February 12, 2003 at 08:30:55, Ed Schröder wrote: > >>On February 12, 2003 at 06:49:44, Thorsten Czub wrote: >> >>>The new Rebel12 BETA5 seems to be very strong. >>>In games against Rebel XP REBEL.ENG >>>this new effort of Ed Schröder played unbelievable >>>12.5-0.5 !!!!! 12/1/0 (13) 96.2% on at 1' per move. >> >>It's strange indeed but still within the error margin. I once had a 14-1 case, >>in the end it became about equal. But of course cases like this are the big >>exceptions. Don't be surprised when you are at 50-100 games you are back at 60%. > >12.5-.5 or 14-1 are clearly significant results. > >I do not guess that the difference is so big like the result suggest but I will >be surprised if they are almost equal. > >If I assume 40% for white 30% draws and 30% for black then I expect 12.5-.5 or >13-0 to happen in clearly less than 0.01% of the cases. >If I assume 7 games with white then I get by simple combinatoric >0.4^7*0.3^6+ >0.4^7*0.3^5*0.3*6+0.4^6*0.3^6*0.3*7 > >It is clearly less than 1 out of 10000 cases when the programs are equal. > >If I see 12.5-.5 or 14-1 then I am going to believe that one of the following >happened: > >1)The machine is broken >2)There is a big improvement and my guess is to expect more than 65% in more >games(Note that I do not expect more than 90% because I believe that part of it >has to be some luck). > >Thorsten found that 1 is false so I guess that 2 is correct. > >It is possible that with more information I will have a different opinion(for >example if I know that the 12.5-.5 came only as result of a small change then I >am not going to expect more than 65%) but when I do not know what you did and I >see that result my guess is at least 65% for beta5. Well of course I hope you are right with the 65%, that would be +90 elo, that's hardly imaginable. Here is a true story about randomness, it comes from a book about curiosities I once have read. In a casino somewhere in Europe playing roulette the ball came >110 times on red. That's 2 to the power of 110. In that light a score of 12-0 which is 3 to the power of 12 is meaningless. Ed >Uri
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