Author: Andreas Herrmann
Date: 09:24:31 02/12/03
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On February 12, 2003 at 09:30:17, Uri Blass wrote: >On February 12, 2003 at 08:30:55, Ed Schröder wrote: > >>On February 12, 2003 at 06:49:44, Thorsten Czub wrote: >> >>>The new Rebel12 BETA5 seems to be very strong. >>>In games against Rebel XP REBEL.ENG >>>this new effort of Ed Schröder played unbelievable >>>12.5-0.5 !!!!! 12/1/0 (13) 96.2% on at 1' per move. >> >>It's strange indeed but still within the error margin. I once had a 14-1 case, >>in the end it became about equal. But of course cases like this are the big >>exceptions. Don't be surprised when you are at 50-100 games you are back at 60%. > >12.5-.5 or 14-1 are clearly significant results. > >I do not guess that the difference is so big like the result suggest but I will >be surprised if they are almost equal. > >If I assume 40% for white 30% draws and 30% for black then I expect 12.5-.5 or >13-0 to happen in clearly less than 0.01% of the cases. >If I assume 7 games with white then I get by simple combinatoric >0.4^7*0.3^6+ >0.4^7*0.3^5*0.3*6+0.4^6*0.3^6*0.3*7 > >It is clearly less than 1 out of 10000 cases when the programs are equal. > >If I see 12.5-.5 or 14-1 then I am going to believe that one of the following >happened: > >1)The machine is broken >2)There is a big improvement and my guess is to expect more than 65% in more >games(Note that I do not expect more than 90% because I believe that part of it >has to be some luck). > >Thorsten found that 1 is false so I guess that 2 is correct. > >It is possible that with more information I will have a different opinion(for >example if I know that the 12.5-.5 came only as result of a small change then I >am not going to expect more than 65%) but when I do not know what you did and I >see that result my guess is at least 65% for beta5. > >Uri i often let the absolutely same Holmes version play against itself under Wínboard (2 times installed in different folders) to check only the stability. Before about some weeks i had a result of 17,0 : 3,0. I have checked the settings very carefully, and all was ok. So such results can happen. I can also remember results, where i have playd games between 2 different versions of Holmes where one version scores 70% to 75% in 50 games. Then i have continued, and after 150 games the score was only about 50%. That's real statistic. Andreas
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