Author: Drexel,Michael
Date: 09:49:09 02/12/03
Go up one level in this thread
On February 12, 2003 at 11:58:47, Ed Schröder wrote: >On February 12, 2003 at 09:30:17, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On February 12, 2003 at 08:30:55, Ed Schröder wrote: >> >>>On February 12, 2003 at 06:49:44, Thorsten Czub wrote: >>> >>>>The new Rebel12 BETA5 seems to be very strong. >>>>In games against Rebel XP REBEL.ENG >>>>this new effort of Ed Schröder played unbelievable >>>>12.5-0.5 !!!!! 12/1/0 (13) 96.2% on at 1' per move. >>> >>>It's strange indeed but still within the error margin. I once had a 14-1 case, >>>in the end it became about equal. But of course cases like this are the big >>>exceptions. Don't be surprised when you are at 50-100 games you are back at 60%. >> >>12.5-.5 or 14-1 are clearly significant results. >> >>I do not guess that the difference is so big like the result suggest but I will >>be surprised if they are almost equal. >> >>If I assume 40% for white 30% draws and 30% for black then I expect 12.5-.5 or >>13-0 to happen in clearly less than 0.01% of the cases. >>If I assume 7 games with white then I get by simple combinatoric >>0.4^7*0.3^6+ >>0.4^7*0.3^5*0.3*6+0.4^6*0.3^6*0.3*7 >> >>It is clearly less than 1 out of 10000 cases when the programs are equal. >> >>If I see 12.5-.5 or 14-1 then I am going to believe that one of the following >>happened: >> >>1)The machine is broken >>2)There is a big improvement and my guess is to expect more than 65% in more >>games(Note that I do not expect more than 90% because I believe that part of it >>has to be some luck). >> >>Thorsten found that 1 is false so I guess that 2 is correct. >> >>It is possible that with more information I will have a different opinion(for >>example if I know that the 12.5-.5 came only as result of a small change then I >>am not going to expect more than 65%) but when I do not know what you did and I >>see that result my guess is at least 65% for beta5. > > >Well of course I hope you are right with the 65%, that would be +90 elo, that's >hardly imaginable. Here is a true story about randomness, it comes from a book >about curiosities I once have read. In a casino somewhere in Europe playing >roulette the ball came >110 times on red. That's 2 to the power of 110. In that >light a score of 12-0 which is 3 to the power of 12 is meaningless. > >Ed >110 ?? ~1.298*10^33 ?? German comment: "Da hat man dir aber einen schönen Bären aufgebunden" Its possible of course but Im quite sure: This has never happend. In Monte Carlo the record is 52 times on black in a row. > > > >>Uri
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