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Subject: Re: Adding ratings to opening book evaluation

Author: Danniel Corbit

Date: 09:50:26 10/02/98

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Weighting systems work for computers but I don't think that they will add
anything for a human.  For me, anyway, I have to really understand how an
opening *works* to use it.  Just having some number like +.63 for an opening
would not be beneficial.  On the other hand, to have a ranking by computer
evaluation and by wins and losses in actual games -- using both of these
measures humans could figure out which openings to *study* and that could be of
great benefit.  Trying to apply this sort of knowlege to humans may be difficult
and certainly will be imprecise.  There are probably some GM's that can just
glance at an unfamiliar position and know how it *works* whereas there may be
persons who will never master more than one or two openings.

Also, the computer analysis can be faulty.  In particular Zugzwag positions
freak out a large number of algorithms [those that rely on null move pruning].

Also, the win-loss statistics can be faulty.  Suppose a great GM like Petrosian
likes a certain opening and plays it a lot.  That opening will win a lot, just
because it is being played by a great player.  Some other very good players may
see him winning a lot and try it too.  So an opening could become in vogue by
good players.  Later a hole gets discovered.  But *in the past* it was played
successfully so many times that the statistic is skewed.  If that opening is now
avoided, the statistic could remain stuck at the old value.

So to directly answer your question:
Statistics and studies have been done on openings.  In fact, I am doing one
right now.  But to get a really good set of answers is problematic at best.



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