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Subject: Re: Computer chess and processor speed in 20 years from now...

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 05:12:56 02/26/03

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On February 26, 2003 at 08:08:17, Chris Carson wrote:

>On February 26, 2003 at 06:15:04, Chris wrote:
>
>>I am doing some research on computer chess, and I am looking for some
>>essays/viewpoints about the future, say 20-30 years from now. The important
>>thing is the big questions like: What will it mean for chess when/if a computer
>>program beats the human world champion consistently in a match (not only near
>>equal scores)? If computers reach 3100-3300 ELO or so, will it change anything
>>in comparison with the situation at present? Will it spoil chess? Is there a
>>chance/risk of chess being solved with the supercomputers of the future? etc.
>>
>>I am also looking for some predictions/information about processor speed in
>>20-30 years from now.
>>
>>Any viewpoints from the forum on these questions are of course most welcome, and
>>links to essays/viewpoints on this subject would be of great help.
>>
>>Thanks in advance for any help
>
>1.  What will it mean for chess when/if a computer program beats the human world
>champion consistently in a match (not only near equal scores)?  Nothing in my
>opinion.  Chess is chess, computer programs are a tool to help people, people
>will play better.
>
>2.  If computers reach 3100-3300 ELO or so, will it change anything in
>comparison with the situation at present?  See 1. above.
>
>
>3.  Will it spoil chess?  No.  See 1. above.
>
>4.  Is there a chance/risk of chess being solved with the supercomputers of the
>future?  Eventually the programs will solve it, however, that is many years in
>the future.  Humans will still play, to many games to memorize.
>
>5.  I am also looking for some predictions/information about processor speed in
>20-30 years from now.  For micro's Moore's law still holds.  So 21 years is 7
>doublings of speed or 128 times as fast as today.  Also, SW/Hardware ELO
>continues to increase at about 70 points for doubling speed, so in 21 years the
>ELO of the top Micro could 500 points stronger (single proc only) or 3300 ELO vs
>Human GM's.  GM's will also be stronger, perhaps 150 more points (based on the
>last 20 years, so the top GM would be about 3000 ELO and could still draw or
>even win a game or two against the top Program/Micro.

Should be 13 doublings not 7, so the comps will be much stronger in 20 years,
you can calculate 2 to the 13 power to get the speed increase.



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