Author: Chris Carson

Date: 05:12:56 02/26/03

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On February 26, 2003 at 08:08:17, Chris Carson wrote: >On February 26, 2003 at 06:15:04, Chris wrote: > >>I am doing some research on computer chess, and I am looking for some >>essays/viewpoints about the future, say 20-30 years from now. The important >>thing is the big questions like: What will it mean for chess when/if a computer >>program beats the human world champion consistently in a match (not only near >>equal scores)? If computers reach 3100-3300 ELO or so, will it change anything >>in comparison with the situation at present? Will it spoil chess? Is there a >>chance/risk of chess being solved with the supercomputers of the future? etc. >> >>I am also looking for some predictions/information about processor speed in >>20-30 years from now. >> >>Any viewpoints from the forum on these questions are of course most welcome, and >>links to essays/viewpoints on this subject would be of great help. >> >>Thanks in advance for any help > >1. What will it mean for chess when/if a computer program beats the human world >champion consistently in a match (not only near equal scores)? Nothing in my >opinion. Chess is chess, computer programs are a tool to help people, people >will play better. > >2. If computers reach 3100-3300 ELO or so, will it change anything in >comparison with the situation at present? See 1. above. > > >3. Will it spoil chess? No. See 1. above. > >4. Is there a chance/risk of chess being solved with the supercomputers of the >future? Eventually the programs will solve it, however, that is many years in >the future. Humans will still play, to many games to memorize. > >5. I am also looking for some predictions/information about processor speed in >20-30 years from now. For micro's Moore's law still holds. So 21 years is 7 >doublings of speed or 128 times as fast as today. Also, SW/Hardware ELO >continues to increase at about 70 points for doubling speed, so in 21 years the >ELO of the top Micro could 500 points stronger (single proc only) or 3300 ELO vs >Human GM's. GM's will also be stronger, perhaps 150 more points (based on the >last 20 years, so the top GM would be about 3000 ELO and could still draw or >even win a game or two against the top Program/Micro. Should be 13 doublings not 7, so the comps will be much stronger in 20 years, you can calculate 2 to the 13 power to get the speed increase.

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