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Subject: Re: Computer chess 10 years

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 10:37:43 02/26/03

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Here is a look at time, mp, speed, SSDF, and FIDE.  Note that S/W improvement is
a vital component to increasing ELO, however, since I do not know how to
quantify the SW ELO improvements from the HW speed up over time, I can not break
it out, thus it is included in the over all ELO improvement.

			FIDE	SSDF
Date	Mp	GHZ	SI2K	ELO	ELO

Jun-78	8086	0.01	0.10	1443
Feb-82	286	0.01	0.45	1650
Sep-85	386	0.02	1	1760
Apr-89	386	0.03	2	1833	2025
May-90	486	0.03	4	1951	2139
Aug-92	486	0.07	10	2077	2265
Mar-94	P	0.09	24	2198	2382
Jan-97	Pmmx	0.20	49	2296	2475
Aug-97	PII	0.30	113	2412
Jun-98	PII	0.45	175	2472	2697
Nov-99	PIII	0.50	254	2523
Nov-99	PIII	0.73	335	2561
Mar-01	AMD	1.2	443	2600	2768
Apr-01	PIV	2	722	2667
Jan-03	PIV	3	1099	2725
Jun-04		6	2000	2807
Jan-06		12	4000	2903
Jun-07		24	8000	2999
Jan-09		48	16000	3094
Jun-10		96	32000	3190
Jan-12		192	64000	3285
Jun-13		384	128000	3381

Note: This is an estimate or opinion only.  The SSDF SEM is 30 and you can add
20 more for my regression estimate for a total SEM of 50 points.

Have fun and enjoy, hope the colums line up when I submit this.

Carson



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