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Subject: Re: Computer chess 10 years

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 15:27:13 02/26/03

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On February 26, 2003 at 17:31:45, Aaron Gordon wrote:

>On February 26, 2003 at 13:37:43, Chris Carson wrote:
>
>>Here is a look at time, mp, speed, SSDF, and FIDE.  Note that S/W improvement is
>>a vital component to increasing ELO, however, since I do not know how to
>>quantify the SW ELO improvements from the HW speed up over time, I can not break
>>it out, thus it is included in the over all ELO improvement.
>>
>>			FIDE	SSDF
>>Date	Mp	GHZ	SI2K	ELO	ELO
>>
>>Jun-78	8086	0.01	0.10	1443
>>Feb-82	286	0.01	0.45	1650
>>Sep-85	386	0.02	1	1760
>>Apr-89	386	0.03	2	1833	2025
>>May-90	486	0.03	4	1951	2139
>>Aug-92	486	0.07	10	2077	2265
>>Mar-94	P	0.09	24	2198	2382
>>Jan-97	Pmmx	0.20	49	2296	2475
>>Aug-97	PII	0.30	113	2412
>>Jun-98	PII	0.45	175	2472	2697
>>Nov-99	PIII	0.50	254	2523
>>Nov-99	PIII	0.73	335	2561
>>Mar-01	AMD	1.2	443	2600	2768
>>Apr-01	PIV	2	722	2667
>>Jan-03	PIV	3	1099	2725
>>Jun-04		6	2000	2807
>>Jan-06		12	4000	2903
>>Jun-07		24	8000	2999
>>Jan-09		48	16000	3094
>>Jun-10		96	32000	3190
>>Jan-12		192	64000	3285
>>Jun-13		384	128000	3381
>>
>>Note: This is an estimate or opinion only.  The SSDF SEM is 30 and you can add
>>20 more for my regression estimate for a total SEM of 50 points.
>>
>>Have fun and enjoy, hope the colums line up when I submit this.
>>
>>Carson
>
>You're showing a P4-2GHz a 67 elo over a Tbird 1.2GHz.. how do you figure? In
>chess they both get identical nodes/sec.

I use specint 2000 for the calculations.  I do not test node counts (although
that would be good for a specific program, HW has different effects on
programs).  I think the specint 2000 is correct for the two you questioned,
however, performance for different programs may vary.

In the past people used hz (ie Mhz or Ghz) for comparison, I have found that
specint is more accurate.  I am open to better performance measures, however, I
can not check node counts for all programs and all hardware, to much for one
part time volunteer person.



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