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Subject: Re: Introducing "No-Moore's Law" It is well outpaced the last years!

Author: Matt Taylor

Date: 20:46:41 02/28/03

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On February 28, 2003 at 19:30:21, Torstein Hall wrote:

>On February 27, 2003 at 16:43:45, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>On February 27, 2003 at 15:57:04, Brian Richardson wrote:
>>>As I recall, 5 years ago folks were saying only another 10-12 years for Moore's
>>>Law they are still saying another 10 years or so.  I agree that
>>>at some point physics will dictate limitations, but then there is more
>>>parallelism.  Sun just outlined plans for running 4 threads on each of 4 cores
>>>on a single chip in the 3-5 year time frame.  That would be roughly 16x.  Both
>>>Intel and IBM have similar plans to extend on-chip parallelism.
>>>Bottom Line:  Just as coding for 64 bits will become the norm soon, so will
>>>coding for parallel searching with multiple threads.
>>If you look back over the past 5 years, I've said that a hundred times.
>>"Moore's law"
>>is definitely fading fast.
>That statement do not sum correctly if I remember right. Is it not 5, 6 or 7
>years ago a 200MHZ Pentium Pro was really hot? At the moment Intel is fast
>moving beyond 3Ghz. Thats a hefty 15 times clock speedup in the period, not
>counting paralelism etc. etc.
>So if this is right Moores law is breaking, the speedup seen from a consumers
>point of view is much higher!

That's comparing apples to oranges. A 3 GHz Pentium 4 will be sorely outclassed
by a 3 GHz Pentium Pro. As best I can estimate, a 3 GHz Pentium 4 is
approximately equal in speed to a 2 GHz Pentium Pro.

Moore's Law states that in 18 months, the number of transisters will double.
This is commonly interpreted as, "In 18 months the speed will double." I've also
heard it interpreted as, "In 18 months either the speed will double or the cost
will be cut in half." In either case, Intel doesn't think Moore's Law has run
out yet:


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