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Subject: Re: Rules of thumb for strength estimation?

Author: Tim Foden

Date: 03:13:51 04/25/03

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On April 25, 2003 at 04:20:33, Albert Bertilsson wrote:

>Hi!
>
>When testing my new engine versions against older versions I use the nice
>WhoIsBetter tool to determine weather or not the new version is likely to be
>stronger.
>
>But I would also like to know how much stronger. Just an estimation would be
>nice, just as an reward for the work. Putting the engine on FICS takes to long,
>so I wonder are there any rules of thumb that I can apply?
>
>Like:
>New engine scores 3 to 2?

 60% = +70.44 ELO.

>New engine scores 2 to 1?

 66.66% = +120.36 ELO.

>New engine scores 3 to 1?

 75% = +190.85 ELO.
>
>Regards Albert

Dann Corbit has a tool called USCF which can calculate such numbers.  I have a
modified version here.

Here is a table of outputs which may be useful:

A win percentage of 50% gives a rating difference of +0.00 ELO
A win percentage of 55% gives a rating difference of +34.86 ELO
A win percentage of 60% gives a rating difference of +70.44 ELO
A win percentage of 65% gives a rating difference of +107.54 ELO
A win percentage of 70% gives a rating difference of +147.19 ELO
A win percentage of 75% gives a rating difference of +190.85 ELO
A win percentage of 80% gives a rating difference of +240.82 ELO
A win percentage of 85% gives a rating difference of +301.33 ELO
A win percentage of 90% gives a rating difference of +381.70 ELO

Cheers, Tim.



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