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Subject: Re: Are over-optimistically evaluations stronger than realistic evaluati

Author: Amir Ban

Date: 14:11:16 04/29/03

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On April 29, 2003 at 16:25:42, Uri Blass wrote:

>On April 29, 2003 at 15:17:32, Amir Ban wrote:
>
>>On April 28, 2003 at 11:30:08, Charles Worthington wrote:
>>
>>>That's an interesting question but I have one of my own. Is not the engine's
>>>choice of continuations based soley on its eval of the line? Many times I have
>>>seen Shredder follow its over optimistic evals to a dead draw as white. I would
>>>rather my program know where it really stands and whether or not it has
>>>realistic winning chances. Also...I personally would like to know where it
>>>stands as well. There is nothing quite so frustrating as to have an over
>>>optimistic eval turn on you and bite you. I have seen numerous situations where
>>>The King has an eval of +2 against Deep Fritz's -1 and it RARELY works out in
>>>The Kings favor. It's hard for me to muster faith in an engine that is clueless
>>>about it's own position and it is the one thing that keeps me from giving
>>>Shredder a fair shot at becoming my main engine. Enough times of seeing Fritz
>>>pull the rug out from under my Shredder eval has spooked me I guess. I just do
>>>not see how it is possible to handle a position properly when you cannot even
>>>eval it properly and in fast blitz time controls (3+2), I might also add that
>>>the "optimistic" engines almost always perform more poorly than the well
>>>balanced engines. The truth seems to perform better than the lie in this case.
>>>Of course this discussion is about self-inflicted optimism by tampering with the
>>>parameters so it seems even more extreme. You are taking an already-optimistic
>>>engine and furthering it's optimism. It would likely take many thousands of
>>>games to come to a conclusion as to which works best. Honestly though, I think
>>>that in this case having your program lie to you (and itself) will not prove
>>>beneficial. The program will play better if it has a full understanding of its
>>>actual chances and not imagined ones...Optimism causes the program to
>>>overestimate it's chances and play far too aggressively (ie. unwarranted
>>>sacrifices) in certain positions where caution is warranted. Against a human
>>>this may prove beneficial but against a program firmly grounded in reality it
>>>may prove fatal. So, like in life, I think the truth has to be better than the
>>>lie. And I think that extensive testing of these settings would show that, more
>>>often than not, the lie would come back to bite you.
>>>
>>
>>I agree.
>>
>>I believe overvaluation is the most common reason for engine losses. It's much
>>more common than undervaluation, a less fatal problem. This is especially true
>>in tactical situations, where the program with overvaluation seems not to see
>>tactics, because its search is meaningless.
>>
>>Amir
>
>1)What is overevaluation
>Do you mean positional score that is too high or only being too optimistic?
>

I don't really see the difference. I prefer the term "overvaluation" over
"optimistic" (or maybe "bluffing") because the latter creates the illusion that
the program knows what's right and consiciously distorts it.


>Note that being too optimistic is not always a result of overevaluating a
>positional score and it may be a result of not understanding the positional
>advantage of the opponent.
>

If I understand correctly you distinguish between counting a non-existent
advantage and discounting a real disadvantage. This is interesting, but I don't
make the distinction and don't believe that it matters much in the effect.


>2)About which engines do you talk?
>

I won't be specific but it exists at the highest levels, and I'm familiar with
it in many versions of my own. This is of course not a general problem of an
engine but of its behavior in some types of positions.

Amir


>There are a lot of amateurs and today there are more than an hundred of free
>chess programs.
>
>I guess that you did not think about the weak engines that part of them even
>have no more than piece square table evaluation but it is better to make clear
>if you mean only to the commercial programs or also to the top amateurs and the
>program that are slightly weaker than them
>(Ruffian,List,Sos,Yace,Crafty,Comet,Pepito,Aristarch...).
>
>Uri



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