Author: Komputer Korner
Date: 20:03:08 10/19/98
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On October 17, 1998 at 11:30:38, Jari Huikari wrote: > >Could anyone of you find following statistics from a large amount of >chess games? (E.g. from FICS or some Computer-Computer events...) > >-How often white/black checkmates the opponent? >-How often either side resigns? >-How often stalemates occurr? >-How often the game is otherwise drawn? >(mutual agreement, 3. repetitions, insufficient material, 50 moves rule) > > Thanks! > Jari Out of Knut Neven's Research Base of 1270187 games: Checkmates= 6% Resignations= 63.26% Draws of all kinds= 30.74% Stalemates= 0.05% Other draws=30.69% Some bases may have more draws, but in my base I deleted a lot of repeat short draws that may actually have been between different draws, but it wasn't more than 20,000 or so of those so that can't be the reason. The actual reason is that GM vs GM games are less than 100,000 of the total so the so called GM draw is less prevalent among lower rated players even though Knut's base quality of the opponents is high enough to average 2445 of the players in the base that were given a rating in the game header. This obviously is skewed because almost all of the lower rated players in the base wouldn't have been given a rating in the game header. So the bottom line is that it is impossible to know exactly unless one was to manually look up the rating of every player in the base and this is something no one will ever do. However there is a way. We know that players at 1000 ELO against each other draw less than 5% of the time and this draw % would increase until at the 2800 level players draw nearly 80% of the time against each other. So I guess some tests could be made to get the exact equation but I don't have time to do this. I would guess that Knut's base based on the draw % would probably average about 2300 ELO. From looking at the numbers with some quick calculations which are by no means accurate, I come up with a hasty formula where % draws = (absolute value of (ELO/80))^1.11 note that this is changed from the erroneous equation I presented on RGCC. If we can get this formula accurate then we can always calculate the average ELO of a DB based on it's draw %. -- Komputer Korner
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