Author: Omid David Tabibi
Date: 10:21:49 06/07/03
Go up one level in this thread
On June 07, 2003 at 11:54:30, emerson tan wrote:
>How many Ghz before we can get average 20ply per move on a tournament time
>control. I always want a computer that can see 10 moves ahead
Let's look at Crafty's analysis of the following position (on 733MHz, 64MB):
[D]r1b2rk1/1pq1bppp/p1nppn2/8/P2NPP2/2N1B3/1PP1B1PP/R2Q1RK1 w - - 0 1
Analysis by Crafty 19.03:
11.Bc4
² (0.69) Depth: 1/13 00:00:00
11.Bc4 Bd7
² (0.58) Depth: 2/13 00:00:00
11.Nxc6 bxc6
² (0.68) Depth: 2/13 00:00:00
11.Nxc6 bxc6 12.Bc4
± (0.74) Depth: 3/13 00:00:00
11.Nxc6 bxc6 12.b4 d5
² (0.59) Depth: 4/14 00:00:00
11.Nxc6 Qxc6 12.Qd4 d5 13.exd5 Nxd5 14.Nxd5 Qxd5 15.Qxd5 exd5
² (0.62) Depth: 5/20 00:00:00
11.Nxc6 bxc6 12.b4 d5 13.Qd4 Bb7
² (0.54) Depth: 6/20 00:00:00 63kN
11.Nxc6 bxc6 12.Qd2 a5 13.Rad1 Ba6 14.f5 Bxe2 15.Qxe2
² (0.58) Depth: 7/25 00:00:01 216kN
11.Nxc6 bxc6 12.Qd2 Bb7 13.b4 c5 14.b5 Rab8 15.bxa6 Nxe4
² (0.49) Depth: 8/25 00:00:03 611kN
11.Qd2 Bd7 12.Nb3 Nb4 13.Rad1 h6 14.f5 b6
² (0.51) Depth: 8/25 00:00:05 1195kN
11.Qd2 Bd7 12.Nb3 b6 13.Rad1 h6 14.Rfe1 Rfc8 15.Bc4
² (0.52) Depth: 9/30 00:00:09 2408kN
11.Qd2 Bd7 12.Nb3 b6 13.Bf3 h6 14.Rad1
² (0.43) Depth: 10/30 00:00:25 7242kN
11.Nxc6 bxc6 12.Qd3 a5 13.Rad1 Ba6 14.Qd2 Bxe2 15.Qxe2 d5 16.exd5 exd5
² (0.44) Depth: 10/30 00:00:37 10909kN
11.Nxc6 bxc6 12.Rc1 c5 13.Bf3 Bb7 14.Qe2 d5 15.exd5 exd5 16.Rcd1 Rad8
² (0.41) Depth: 11/32 00:01:29 28187kN
11.Rc1 Nb4 12.Qd2 Bd7 13.Nb3 d5 14.e5 Ne4 15.Nxe4 dxe4 16.Qd4
² (0.42) Depth: 11/32 00:03:38 70138kN
========
depth time (seconds)
7 1
8 5
9 9
10 37
11 218
Let's assume an effective branching factor of 3, and continue guessing the
times:
12 654
13 1962
14 5886
15 17658
16 52974
17 158922
18 476766
19 1430298
20 4290894
4290894 seconds on a 733 Mhz processor.
Now, processor speedup is linear, i.e., a 2x faster processor will result in the
time being reduced by half. Also tournament time control is about 3 minutes per
move (180 seconds). So:
processor_you_need = 733 * (4290894 / 180) = 17473473.9 MHz
That is, for reaching 20 plies on the above position in a tournament time
control using Crafty, you will need a processor of something like 17000 GHz
(about 16.6 THz). And today we "only" have 3 GHz!
That's why I believe more in algorithmic speedup (exponential) rather than
hardware speedup (linear).
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