Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 19:45:40 06/07/03
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On June 07, 2003 at 11:54:30, emerson tan wrote: >How many Ghz before we can get average 20ply per move on a tournament time >control. I always want a computer that can see 10 moves ahead Lets take Crafty as a case in point, since I know what it can do. On a 3ghz machine, at 3 minutes a move, it will search 12-14 plies in the middlegame depending on checks and so forth. Let's take 13 as an average. To do 14, requires 3x faster hardware. you want to go 7 plies deeper, which means 3^7 times faster = roughly 6.7 terahertz. or about 2000 times faster than the fastest machine today. If you figure on doubling every 18 months, assuming Moore's law doesn't "run dry" then log2(2187) = roughly 10. Which means you need to double the 3.0ghz today about 10 times. Figure 15 years with luck.
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