Author: Danniel Corbit
Date: 00:06:14 07/02/98
Yes, I know the reports of how there are 28 possibilites at each half ply, rendering the number of possible chess games into stratospheric, giddy, silly, Archimedian-cycle type numbers. But I don't believe it. No, I'm not trying to deny the math. 28^k is a big number for some very puny values of K. But [in reality] from a few thousand known openings and variations, I find that even with hundreds of games played at a position, only 3 or 4 moves on average are actually taken by the great masters after the 10th move or so [or even by the great programs for that matter.] So, it might be interesting to have a massive project to analyze known games. We could start with the best move from the endpoint of each known opening. We can justify the "best" move by percentage of wins and percentage of draws with a threshold that at least 30 players have achieved that FEN position. After the "best" move has been analyzed at depth, we can move to the 'supposedly' second best move and so on. I know everyone will think this is ludicrous stupidity. But those who have managed to download one of the books from the SolutionsIQ web site, try it out with CDB and you will see that it is true [well, not in theory of course -- but only in that stupid reality arena].
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