Author: Ulrich Tuerke
Date: 09:56:29 10/20/98
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On October 20, 1998 at 12:29:59, Bruce Moreland wrote: > >On October 20, 1998 at 01:36:22, Jouni Uski wrote: > >>Here's result for 20 games match with 60/5 time limit (under Winboard): >> >>Comet 0.5 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 1 0 = 8 >>Wcrafty 0.5 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0.5 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 0 1 = 12 >> >>So they are very close to each other in playing strength. > >60% is 100 Elo points, If I'm not wrong, 60% is rather in the range of a 50 - 60 ELO points difference. But it doesn't matter anyway, see below. >if you can assume that 60% is the "true" result for these >programs, which you can't from this sample, I would bet. No doubt about that. A sample of 200 games still has an uncertainty of about 50 ELO points. So, a 20 game match has an uncertainty of several hundred ELO points. IMHO, the only rather safe conclusion is, that none of both programs is completely without chance against the other one. Not a very sophisticated conclusion, I'm afraid. Uli > >bruce
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