Author: blass uri
Date: 06:18:57 10/21/98
Go up one level in this thread
On October 21, 1998 at 08:07:53, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On October 21, 1998 at 04:37:38, Nouveau wrote: > >> >>On October 20, 1998 at 12:13:16, Dann Corbit wrote: >> >>>On October 20, 1998 at 10:37:36, Nouveau wrote: >>>>On October 20, 1998 at 01:36:22, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>> >>>>>Here's result for 20 games match with 60/5 time limit (under Winboard): >>>>> >>>>>Comet 0.5 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 1 0.5 0 1 0 = 8 >>>>>Wcrafty 0.5 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0.5 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 0 1 = 12 >>>>> >>>>>So they are very close to each other in playing strength. >>>>> >>>>>Jouni >>>> >>>>12-8 is very close ?????????? >>>> >>>>When can we say : Crafty is better than Comet ? 18-2 ? >>>> >>>>I don't understand these statistical stuff : I can't imagine a 12-8 result in a >>>>match between 2 GM with a conclusion like "They are very close in playing >>>>stregth". >>>> >>>>Why do we need hundreds, maybe thousands of games between computers to evaluate >>>>relative strength, when few dozens are more than needed for human GMs ? >>>Any strong conclusion from a single match is faulty. It could be that Comet is >>>500 points above Crafty, or 500 points below (although both of these are >>>statistically very unlikely, really, very little has been demonstrated at this >>>point from a single set of games). >> >>Just imagine : the match between Kasparov and Chirov takes place and the result >>is : Kasparov-Chirov = 12-8. >>Maybe Kasparov is 500 points above Chirov or 500 points below...Show me any >>chess magazine that would print such an affirmation. >>I know, those chess journalists don't have a clue on science and stats ;o) >> >>> The international chess bodies like FIDE >>>have definitely got it right in the way that they perform evaluations using the >>>ELO method. Also, in requiring a long period of excellent results to become a >>>GM. >> >>Can someone make the math for this : a player has a 2600 level but no rating, >>how many games against a 2500 opposition does he need to reach 2600 ? >> > > >easy here. one game. his rating would be 2700 after that one game, since >the first N games uses the usual "TPR" type calculation. after 1 game you have no rating you need at least 9 games to have a rating (not important if it is 2005 or 2700 players who have 2005 rating need at least 30 games if you assume they cannot earn more than 20 elo in one game. Uri
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