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Subject: Re: Inflationary Effects?

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 12:22:31 07/13/03

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On July 13, 2003 at 15:03:38, Sune Fischer wrote:

>On July 13, 2003 at 12:42:19, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>I (and many others) believe that the Elo system works well for players
>>that are pretty close in rating.  It seems to work less well (in the case
>>of computers) for players that are significantly separated in ratings.
>
>I agree mostly, not sure why it should be different for computers though.
>
>>Starting at the top eliminates the bottom of the pool from the "war".  If
>>the bottom can't drop, then neither can the players at the top.  So you get a
>>new top.  If you start the new (and strong) program at the bottom, he will
>>drop _everybody_ as he goes up, and it would seem that this would result in
>>the new player going to the right "differential" spot but that it might be
>>lower than it would have been with a high start.

I can add here, that his opponents wouldn't go down, on average they would stay
the same because you can't adjust their rating based on someone who hasn't got
an established rating.

After he has played the entire field, you might see the bottom increasing and
the top dropping, thus deflating the scale. That is, if my suspicion of the Elo
formula holds true.

-S.



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