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Subject: Re: Inflationary Effects?

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 10:57:18 07/14/03

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On July 14, 2003 at 13:33:26, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On July 14, 2003 at 05:14:06, Sune Fischer wrote:
>
>>On July 14, 2003 at 00:00:53, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>If you let a new, strong player start at the top, he can establish a higher
>>>rating than if he started at the bottom and stumbled a few times, all the while
>>>dragging everyone's rating above him downward, rather than just jumping on the
>>>top few and leaping over them.
>>>
>>
>>Yes, but only because the Elo formula is flawed!
>
>I don't think it is _flawed_ at all.  It does its job pretty well.  The
>only problem is that the number (rating) is not an absolute measure of
>strength, it is simply relative to the current players in the population.

I believe it is, for the reason I stated below.

>>If the formula was working accurately it wouldn't matter where he played, he
>>should end up getting the same 2800 rating whether he played 2100 opponents or
>>2750 opponents.
>
>
>NO, and that is a basic misunderstanding.  In the Elo system, X and Y
>(those being rating numbers) are _meaningless.  X-Y is the only thing
>that carries any information content.  IE the relative difference, not
>the absolute number.  Elo _never_ claimed that the absolute rating of a
>player meant anything, it is only useful when compared to another rating
>to predict the outcome between those two players.
>

I think it is you who is misunderstanding here, I'm not talking about the
absoluteness at all. The 2800 was _relative_ to the group.

>>It seems to me you want to subject him to a flawed formula by pitting him
>>against lower rated playes so he gets a deflated rating, I don't think that is a
>>good idea.
>
>I simply suggested a way to prevent ratings of 3200 in a couple of years.
>Because so many want the absolute rating to mean something when it doesn't.

Ahem...

Are we on wavelength here?

-S.



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