Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 21:04:58 07/21/03
Go up one level in this thread
On July 21, 2003 at 23:50:38, Omid David Tabibi wrote: >On July 21, 2003 at 23:47:12, Derek Paquette wrote: > >>Hey, while I agree it would cost A LOT >>i have to disagree with you on the point that it "isn't" possible. >>While all wins might seem crazy, >>If 15 million dollars was invested into it, >>a machine that dwarfed deep blue, >>with much larger openning books, (only 4000 lines for deep blue, and people >>think DJ8 that has hundreds of thousands was just as strong? dont' get that, but >>neway) >> >> >>if its looking at a TRUE 20 ply ahead, I don't see how it could lose with that >>much invested. > >It will lose very rarely, but will still draw quite frequently... Let's suppose that though a titanic bucket of money, the speed of Deep Blue were increased thusly: Per-CPU speedup 100x (already achieved 10x, I think -- 100x should be doable) CPU number increase 10x (480 to 4,800) so we have 1000x power increase. That would correspond to about 10 doublings in power. That would be 500 ELO. Let's say that really Kasparov was 100 ELO better than Deep Blue 2, but due to lack of familiarity and various mistakes it did not show through. Then Deep Blue 3 would have a 400 ELO advantage. In such a scenario, Kasparov will win 9% of the points. Not even much room for draws in that 9%. Now, add in software improvements, a ten million dollar opening book and 7 man tablebase files totally in memory. I think it might blank the strongest player in the world. But I may be totally wrong, too.
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