Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 23:27:31 07/21/03
Go up one level in this thread
On July 22, 2003 at 02:22:44, Omid David Tabibi wrote: >On July 22, 2003 at 00:04:58, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On July 21, 2003 at 23:50:38, Omid David Tabibi wrote: >> >>>On July 21, 2003 at 23:47:12, Derek Paquette wrote: >>> >>>>Hey, while I agree it would cost A LOT >>>>i have to disagree with you on the point that it "isn't" possible. >>>>While all wins might seem crazy, >>>>If 15 million dollars was invested into it, >>>>a machine that dwarfed deep blue, >>>>with much larger openning books, (only 4000 lines for deep blue, and people >>>>think DJ8 that has hundreds of thousands was just as strong? dont' get that, but >>>>neway) >>>> >>>> >>>>if its looking at a TRUE 20 ply ahead, I don't see how it could lose with that >>>>much invested. >>> >>>It will lose very rarely, but will still draw quite frequently... >> >>Let's suppose that though a titanic bucket of money, the speed of Deep Blue were >>increased thusly: >> >>Per-CPU speedup 100x (already achieved 10x, I think -- 100x should be doable) >>CPU number increase 10x (480 to 4,800) >> >>so we have 1000x power increase. That would correspond to about 10 doublings in >>power. >>That would be 500 ELO. > >How did you calculate this? > >Assuming a branching factor of 3, log(1000)/log(3) is about 6 plies. 6 >additional plies will increase the strength significantly, but not more than 200 >Elo in my opinion (diminishing returns, etc). 50 ELO per doubling of speed is the lower end of the standard estimates (50-70 ELO is the heuristic figure). As far as diminishing returns go, it has been demonstrated by one study and refuted by another. >Computers are already stronger than humans in tactics, so 6 additional plies >will just be an overkill. On the other hand, those 6 additional plies will >hardly make up for the program's inferior positional understanding in comparison >to humans. With 6 more plies, tactics become strategy. If a program that can consider 12 plies (6 full moves) can now consider 18 plies, that is 9 fullmoves ahead. If we have some sort of selective search going on, I think we will see true strategies emerging. [snip]
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