Author: Jorge Pichard
Date: 00:10:45 07/22/03
Go up one level in this thread
On July 22, 2003 at 02:27:31, Dann Corbit wrote: >On July 22, 2003 at 02:22:44, Omid David Tabibi wrote: > >>On July 22, 2003 at 00:04:58, Dann Corbit wrote: >> >>>On July 21, 2003 at 23:50:38, Omid David Tabibi wrote: >>> >>>>On July 21, 2003 at 23:47:12, Derek Paquette wrote: >>>> >>>>>Hey, while I agree it would cost A LOT >>>>>i have to disagree with you on the point that it "isn't" possible. >>>>>While all wins might seem crazy, >>>>>If 15 million dollars was invested into it, >>>>>a machine that dwarfed deep blue, >>>>>with much larger openning books, (only 4000 lines for deep blue, and people >>>>>think DJ8 that has hundreds of thousands was just as strong? dont' get that, but >>>>>neway) >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>if its looking at a TRUE 20 ply ahead, I don't see how it could lose with that >>>>>much invested. >>>> >>>>It will lose very rarely, but will still draw quite frequently... >>> >>>Let's suppose that though a titanic bucket of money, the speed of Deep Blue were >>>increased thusly: >>> >>>Per-CPU speedup 100x (already achieved 10x, I think -- 100x should be doable) >>>CPU number increase 10x (480 to 4,800) >>> >>>so we have 1000x power increase. That would correspond to about 10 doublings in >>>power. >>>That would be 500 ELO. >> >>How did you calculate this? >> >>Assuming a branching factor of 3, log(1000)/log(3) is about 6 plies. 6 >>additional plies will increase the strength significantly, but not more than 200 >>Elo in my opinion (diminishing returns, etc). > >50 ELO per doubling of speed is the lower end of the standard estimates (50-70 >ELO is the heuristic figure). > >As far as diminishing returns go, it has been demonstrated by one study and >refuted by another. > >>Computers are already stronger than humans in tactics, so 6 additional plies >>will just be an overkill. On the other hand, those 6 additional plies will >>hardly make up for the program's inferior positional understanding in comparison >>to humans. > >With 6 more plies, tactics become strategy. If a program that can consider 12 >plies (6 full moves) can now consider 18 plies, that is 9 fullmoves ahead. > If we consider Eduard Nemeth and Kurt Utzinger games on a P 650 MHz against the best programs we can tell that the top programs are not reaching its peak performance at least tactically, but if they decides to play on an Athlon XP 2700+ we can predict that the programs tactics will become strategy and eventually win 75% of the games. Pichard >If we have some sort of selective search going on, I think we will see true >strategies emerging. >[snip]
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