Author: Uri Blass
Date: 00:53:48 07/22/03
Go up one level in this thread
On July 22, 2003 at 00:04:58, Dann Corbit wrote: >On July 21, 2003 at 23:50:38, Omid David Tabibi wrote: > >>On July 21, 2003 at 23:47:12, Derek Paquette wrote: >> >>>Hey, while I agree it would cost A LOT >>>i have to disagree with you on the point that it "isn't" possible. >>>While all wins might seem crazy, >>>If 15 million dollars was invested into it, >>>a machine that dwarfed deep blue, >>>with much larger openning books, (only 4000 lines for deep blue, and people >>>think DJ8 that has hundreds of thousands was just as strong? dont' get that, but >>>neway) >>> >>> >>>if its looking at a TRUE 20 ply ahead, I don't see how it could lose with that >>>much invested. >> >>It will lose very rarely, but will still draw quite frequently... > >Let's suppose that though a titanic bucket of money, the speed of Deep Blue were >increased thusly: > >Per-CPU speedup 100x (already achieved 10x, I think -- 100x should be doable) >CPU number increase 10x (480 to 4,800) > >so we have 1000x power increase. That would correspond to about 10 doublings in >power. >That would be 500 ELO. I think that this assumption is wrong and there s a diminishing returns from deeper search. >Let's say that really Kasparov was 100 ELO better than Deep Blue 2, but due to >lack of familiarity and various mistakes it did not show through. Then Deep >Blue 3 would have a 400 ELO advantage. > >In such a scenario, Kasparov will win 9% of the points. Not even much room for >draws in that 9%. Now, add in software improvements, a ten million dollar >opening book and 7 man tablebase files totally in memory. > >I think it might blank the strongest player in the world. But I may be totally >wrong, too. I think that even a program that searches to the end of the game may often draw against the best humans. If the program has 2 possibilities when one is an easy draw at super GM level and another is an equal position that the human has good chances to blunder then it has no knowledge to prefer the second position. Uri
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