Author: Matthew Hull
Date: 14:38:29 07/22/03
Go up one level in this thread
On July 22, 2003 at 17:24:11, Uri Blass wrote: >On July 22, 2003 at 10:02:28, Matthew Hull wrote: > >>On July 22, 2003 at 00:08:51, Dann Corbit wrote: >> >>>On July 22, 2003 at 00:01:07, Matthew Hull wrote: >>> >>>>On July 21, 2003 at 23:29:11, Dann Corbit wrote: >>>> >>>>>On July 21, 2003 at 23:14:52, Derek Paquette wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>Ok here is a hypothetical situation for you all. >>>>>>I love debating chess, and so here is something to debate. >>>>>> >>>>>>There was talk a few years ago of a program actually being able to play for the >>>>>>world championship. While this isn't happening, let us pretend for the sake of >>>>>>this debate that it is true. >>>>>> >>>>>>How much money would it take to build a machine and the salary of programmers to >>>>>>win a world championship match outright, >>>>>>so a point where it is embarasing for the Grandmasters >>>>>> >>>>>>no draws, all wins, no loses >>>>>>Is this possible right now? How much money would it cost >>>>> >>>>>Way, way more than the reward in monetary terms. >>>>> >>>>>>The saying is, "money can't buy everything" >>>>>>only most things, is this possible? >>>>>> >>>>>>In my own opinion yes. >>>>>>No investment by any one or two people could possibly afford this, >>>>>>However if a corporation were to invest millions, they could topple the best in >>>>>>the world, thoroughly, >>>>>> >>>>>>my own opinion of course >>>>> >>>>>Possible? Maybe. Hsu/Campbell could shrink and improve the chips by a couple >>>>>orders of magnitude. They could use 1 million of them instead of 480. They >>>>>could use a cluster of top of the line RS/6000 machines and improve/debug the >>>>>programs and hardware. >>>>> >>>>>Probably a cost of 100 million dollars. >>>>> >>>>>There is absolutely no way that's going to happen. >>>>> >>>>>Of course, 20 years from now your desktop PC will be able to do the same thing. >>>>>So why not just wait a bit. >>>> >>>> >>>>Don't need to spend all that money! Not even one cent more. >>>> >>>>I'd bet any of the top programs could win a championship on current hardware, >>>>simply because of the human fatigue factor. The programs we have now would >>>>wear-down any of the top players in a 12 game match, no problem. >>> >>>Without a single draw for the best player in the world? >>> >>>I don't think you read the OP's question. >> >> >>You're right. They could not do it without draws or losses. But I'd bet even >>crafty on current hardware could win a 12+ game match against any human, just by >>fatigue factor alone. >> >>Matt > >I believe that Smirin is going to beat Crafty in a 12 game match. >The fatigue factor is only a problem for kasparov and kramnik and the conclusion >should be that sponsors should not pay them money for matches against computers. > >I do not believe that humans who play a match against another player become >weaker in the last games if they have to play 12 games when they have 48 hours >between every 2 games. > >There were a lot of matches between humans of more than 12 games. >Karpov was leading 5-0 against kasparov and could not win the match because of >the fatique factor but it did not happen after less than 12 games but after more >than 24 games. However, there seems to be a psychological fatigue when playing strong computers for several hours at a stretch...on just one game. There is definitely a physical fatigue for the human in that situation, and zero for the computer. In a match between humans, this is not an issue since both players tire at about the same rate. But grinding out a match with a strong computer, even every two days is probably psychologically wearing over time. That combined with the physical wear of a five hour game becomes quite noticable, since one player has "infinite" stamina and the other does not. It's just not an issue in human/human matches. Do you not think so? Matt > >I do not believe all these stories about the fatique factor. >Both matches of kramnik and kasparov were show matches and these humans should >not get money by another match with computers. > >For some reason the sponsors do not want humans to do their best,otherwise they >can decide not to support humans who do not win like kasparov and support humans >who won(see smirin) or even humans who did not play matches against machines in >the last years in case that they win a match. > >Uri
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