Author: Tim Foden
Date: 04:41:32 08/14/03
Go up one level in this thread
On August 13, 2003 at 15:40:00, Erik Bergren wrote: >Here is the Theoretical and experimental data produced by >the programs above: > > > (After 10,000,000 matches): > (With Probability Ratio of .6237 for White to win.) >Number of White Theoretical Experimental Experimental >Wins per outcome outcome outcome >each match(="n"): for "n": for "100-n": for "n" >========================================================================== >50 821699 (823153) 823153 >51 804525 805157 803365 >52 755117 753009 756603 >53 679385 680519 678344 >54 585885 587044 585463 >55 484234 482899 484001 >56 383517 383030 383595 >57 291021 291419 290359 >58 211537 211395 211549 >59 147254 146946 147571 >60 98140 98336 98541 >61 62601 63001 63208 >62 38206 38150 38069 >63 22301 22647 22274 >64 12444 12388 12268 >65 6635 6534 6614 >66 3378 3295 3392 >67 1642 1662 1607 >68 761 757 735 >69 336 336 334 >70 142 153 129 >71 57 51 52 >72 22 16 21 >73 8 11 8 >74 3 1 1 >75 1 0 1 >76 0 0 0 >(76 to 100 are all zero) Sorry, but this distribution looks almost exactly what you would expect for a 50% outcome, not a 62.37% one. For 62.37% I would expect something like this: n tot n tot 100-n --- ---------- ---------- 50 34116 34116 51 54610 20120 52 85326 11447 53 128900 6196 54 185092 3220 55 258427 1686 56 343477 808 57 439408 394 58 539885 161 59 637399 68 60 721291 33 61 783080 16 62 816871 5 63 818126 1 64 782431 1 65 719842 0 66 631379 1 67 531070 0 68 426372 0 69 328604 0 70 240963 0 71 169194 0 72 113084 0 73 71670 0 74 43304 0 75 25126 0 76 13580 0 77 7066 0 78 3411 0 79 1591 0 80 685 0 81 280 0 82 126 0 83 46 0 84 9 0 85 2 0 86 0 0 87 0 0 88 0 0 89 0 0 90 0 0 91 0 0 92 0 0 93 0 0 94 0 0 95 0 0 96 0 0 97 0 0 98 0 0 99 0 0 100 0 0 total 10000000 Cheers, Tim.
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