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Subject: Re: Statistics, chess, and computers.

Author: Tim Foden

Date: 04:41:32 08/14/03

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On August 13, 2003 at 15:40:00, Erik Bergren wrote:

>Here is the Theoretical and experimental data produced by
>the programs above:
>
>
>                     (After 10,000,000 matches):
>                     (With Probability Ratio of .6237 for White to win.)
>Number of White      Theoretical  Experimental  Experimental
>Wins per             outcome      outcome       outcome
>each match(="n"):    for "n":     for "100-n":  for "n"
>==========================================================================
>50                   821699       (823153)      823153
>51                   804525       805157        803365
>52                   755117       753009        756603
>53                   679385       680519        678344
>54                   585885       587044        585463
>55                   484234       482899        484001
>56                   383517       383030        383595
>57                   291021       291419        290359
>58                   211537       211395        211549
>59                   147254       146946        147571
>60                    98140        98336         98541
>61                    62601        63001         63208
>62                    38206        38150         38069
>63                    22301        22647         22274
>64                    12444        12388         12268
>65                     6635         6534          6614
>66                     3378         3295          3392
>67                     1642         1662          1607
>68                      761          757           735
>69                      336          336           334
>70                      142          153           129
>71                       57           51            52
>72                       22           16            21
>73                        8           11             8
>74                        3            1             1
>75                        1            0             1
>76                        0            0             0
>(76 to 100 are all zero)

Sorry, but this distribution looks almost exactly what you would expect for a
50% outcome, not a 62.37% one.

For 62.37% I would expect something like this:

  n       tot n   tot 100-n
---  ----------  ----------
 50       34116       34116
 51       54610       20120
 52       85326       11447
 53      128900        6196
 54      185092        3220
 55      258427        1686
 56      343477         808
 57      439408         394
 58      539885         161
 59      637399          68
 60      721291          33
 61      783080          16
 62      816871           5
 63      818126           1
 64      782431           1
 65      719842           0
 66      631379           1
 67      531070           0
 68      426372           0
 69      328604           0
 70      240963           0
 71      169194           0
 72      113084           0
 73       71670           0
 74       43304           0
 75       25126           0
 76       13580           0
 77        7066           0
 78        3411           0
 79        1591           0
 80         685           0
 81         280           0
 82         126           0
 83          46           0
 84           9           0
 85           2           0
 86           0           0
 87           0           0
 88           0           0
 89           0           0
 90           0           0
 91           0           0
 92           0           0
 93           0           0
 94           0           0
 95           0           0
 96           0           0
 97           0           0
 98           0           0
 99           0           0
100           0           0
total 10000000

Cheers, Tim.



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