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Subject: Guesses about the future....

Author: Albert Bertilsson

Date: 03:35:31 08/18/03

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>You can see it occuring now in the computer hardware market.  Hard drives will
>soon be the thing of the past with the info stored on the motherboards memory
>chips.  Ram will soon be all integrated on the CPU.  Software will just be
>integrated on the motherboards chipsets..ie firmware.  It will and is going to
>happen.  Just glad to see computer chess is moving in the hardware and not
>software direction.

This sound a lot like a PDA (with some extra ports for hooking in monitor,
keyboard) but with a processing/storage capacity of a modern computer, or in the
future even more powerful.

I think that the trend is possibly starting to happen my indikators are:
-3d chips for PDA's
-Desktops systems not using latest tech but focusing on other aspects like VIA
Epic based computers
- Operating systems providing more complete solutions with less need for adding
other software
- Websolutions for specialized applications

I agree that your hardware vision maybe will come true, maybe in 10 years most
normal computers will be like the ones you discribe.

However I don't think that chess programmes will move into hardware for the
general user, there is no trend in making specialized hardware for consumer
electronics. It seems to me that consumer electronics get more and more general:
- PDA are getting more like mobile phones
- Mobile phones are getting more like PDA's
- Calculators are getting more like PDA's / simple computers
- Computers getting more like PDA's
- PDA's replacing remote controls for TV's etc.
- Set top boxes for video recording/DVD playback/satelite communication
- Gaming machines replacing DVD-players
- DVD-players replacing CD-players and Video players

This points to the above hardware vision, maybe soon we will have the personal
super thingy that will do be enough for all ordinary computer needs (not
including work). However this also means that more stuff will also be software
based because:
- The small superthingy can't support specialized hardware, it's too small
- Maybe it will support a very limited set of expansion slots, but this will
likely be processing/storage upgrades, I think a chess expansion isn't very
going to appear.

For those with extreme needs (perhaps professional chess player needing
analysis, or a scientist) there will traditional computers and there procession
power will surely be imense. Due to the enormous processing power of these
devices competing with dedicated hardware for stuff like chess will be very
difficult and expensive, so expensive that only very few applications will be
implemented as special hardware chips and I don't think that chess is such an
application. Although perhaps we might soon see more general AI capable of
playing chess to! (although waiting for AI is nothing for the impatient)

Anyway I think that hardware chess is doomed to die.

/Regards Albert



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