Author: Fernando Villegas
Date: 05:40:38 11/02/98
Go up one level in this thread
On November 01, 1998 at 18:17:07, Dann Corbit wrote: >Fernando and I seem to have dissenting positions at times. I certainly respect >his position, and recognize his greater experience. However, I would like to >demonstrate that the market is not only thriving, but could possibly explode. >What needs to change is the way of doing business. > >Go to your nearest large software dealer or bookseller and look. You will see >that they have chess software for sale. This is generally not true of most >major games like checkers or backgammon. One manufacturer claims 4,000,000 >copies sold. That is not a small market. > >It appears (to me) that the real problems are in advertizing, manufacture, >distribution, and technical support. > >ADVERTIZING: >When is the last time you saw an advertizement for chess software in a >newspaper, on TV or on the radio? The Anand match, for instance, could have >been MUCH better hyped. Something like that could have gathered world-wide >attention. "MICRO-MACHINE TAKES ON TITAN OF CHESS -- WILL KASPAROV BE NEXT?" >(Nothing wrong with being a little absurd) You could even ask, "Is Kasparov >cowering in fear? Why would he refuse such a match otherwise?" Newspaper ads, >radio ads, television ads. They can be properly targeted and effective. >Matches like Kasparov-Deep Blue and Fisher-Spasky command the attention of the >buying public. This sort of thing can be coat-tailed to gather interest. > >MANUFACTURING: >Manufacturing can bring the cost of a single CD+packaging down to a little over >a dollar. Using JIT techniques, you can nearly eliminate warehousing costs. >Partnership with large software vendors may be able to realize resources for >streamlining. > >DISTRIBUTION: >You can have transactions take place using a web server for a miniscule cost. >The entire process can be automated to eliminate most human intervention. You >can tie in database systems to validate addresses and credit card transactions >which reduces fautly transactions. > >TECHNICAL SUPPORT: >There is clearly a weakness in technical support. Perhaps this is caused by >insufficient testing of the products or undermanned tech support staff. An >effectively run technical support staff has access to and updates a database >which stores the customer problems. These can be recaptured into a knowlege >base which can in turn be used to solve customer problems off-line. > >I predict the opposite. Chess software will roar into the future with an >enormous sales and incredible advances. Those that are able to capture the >market will do incredibly well. > >Every problem is an opportunity. The current problems seem to be all solvable. >If one program is outselling all others by orders of magnitude, why is that? >The product itself may have impact, but look at the advertizing employed, the >packaging, the distribution channels and all of the other ways opportunity is >captured. If there is a problem with the cost of a transaction closing in on >the profit for a transaction, then you must lower the cost of a transaction. >Have you ever seen tpc type benchmarks? They have figures of thousand TPS per >dollar. That's right, the cost of a transaction is measured in dollars. With >the right equipment, they can be very inexpensive. > >Perhaps the chess programmers lack sufficient capital for expansion into new >market opportunities. What about partnering? What about venture capital? > >A time frame like this where a shake-out is occuring is the perfect time for a >tremendous opportunity. Dear dan: If you read my post with the same care I read yours, you will see that in fact we does not disagree in this point so much. When I say this market is collapsed I obviously refer to the current market, the current structure of the market, not the market in eneral, "das ding en sich" of the market. What is collapsed is his actual shape and precisely because they does not follow the advices you give. By the way, some of your advices are cute, other are not. You must take into account the size of this market, specially for professional software, and never forget how tiny is. Is not just a mistake the fact that Ed or another guy, by example people of Millenium or even of Chessbase, does not perform the huge advertising you recomend; they just does not have enough money or at least they are not prepared to expend more money than ever they will collect from the market. Chess in general and chess computer in particular has a very serious original sin: lack of money, lack of interest, lack of critical mass. Simply 99% of people is not interestd in chess and that has consequences of all kind. Just think in this: the last clasified guy in any tennis tournament gets more money that first and second prices in an important chess tournament. How many GM lives in the very fringe of misery you know very well. Nevertheless, of course some kind of thriving could happen, but I insist, the current structure is doomed. Hope I am mistaken, of course. Fernando
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