Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 17:41:05 11/06/98
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On November 06, 1998 at 18:48:39, odell hall wrote: >I am interested in knowing, if even by a wild guess when a program with the >strength of deepblue will be available to the public? Five years? or maybe >three? Here's the basic math... DB searches about 250M nodes per second. Factor in its evaluation, which is probably at least 10x as complex as what is done in the micros, so this is 2500M nodes per second equivalent. A good micro today would do 250K nodes per second... 2500M/250K = 10,000... so we need to get a micro up to 10,000 times faster. If you figure the current doubling every 1.5 years, log2(10000)= 13-14. So 1.5 * 14 == 21 years, roughly. However, it is doubtful the doubling every 18 months is going to continue, so this is easily a lower bound on the time-frame... If you want to factor in new software improvements, this might get shaved a few years... but it isn't going to happen in 3-5 period...
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