Author: stuart taylor
Date: 15:37:37 10/01/03
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On October 01, 2003 at 17:14:51, Harald Faber wrote: >On October 01, 2003 at 16:51:51, Vincent Lejeune wrote: > >>20 years ago, an home computer, who run a chess engine, weight about 1600, now >>about 2600. >>What will be strenght of chess computer in 2013 ? >> >>Please give your oppinion ... >>(3100 is tempting :o) ) > > >Try this one, it suites to your logic: >Half a bald head consists of 300,000 single hairs. How many does a full bald >head have? >(600,000 is also tempting ;-)) 1).I don't really see the comparrison. If you say that after 20 years, half of the knowledge in the best chess programs is very good, then in another 20 years, the totality of the chess knowledge in programs will be LESS good? But we are not comparing half of now to the totality of then. Rather the totality of now to the totality of then. 2).But Vincents logic might be flawed according to THIS analogy. If in 20 years, a baby grows from being 1.5 ft. to being 6 ft. How tall will he be in a further 20 years? S.Taylor
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