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Subject: Re: In about 20 years computer earned 1000 elo points, what's you forecast ?

Author: Mark Young

Date: 16:29:19 10/01/03

Go up one level in this thread


On October 01, 2003 at 19:02:38, Uri Blass wrote:

>On October 01, 2003 at 18:44:45, stuart taylor wrote:
>
>>On October 01, 2003 at 16:51:51, Vincent Lejeune wrote:
>>
>>>20 years ago, an home computer, who run a chess engine, weight about 1600, now
>>>about 2600.
>>>What will be strenght of chess computer in 2013 ?
>>>
>>>Please give your oppinion ...
>>>(3100 is tempting :o) )
>>
>>I'm not sure that it is worth spending too much time and energy speculating and
>>waiting for 2013.
>>I think that the best computers have more or less arrived at what they will
>>arrive at, and from now on it will be a slow proccess of finer tuning, and the
>>increasing speed allowances will merely be allowing the programs to fit in more
>>knowledge within the time controls that previously would have suffered from the
>>slowdown caused by too much knowledge.
>>Yours, humbly,
>>S.Taylor
>
>I do not agree.
>I believe that there is going to be a big progress in software and not only in
>hardware.

You are most likely correct. Remember back what people were saying 1, 2, 3, 4 or
5 years ago on CCC. Many people were saying that the programming has progressed
to a point were it would take much effort to even gain a few rating points on
the programming side.

This has been shown to be false in the past, and I see no reason why it would be
true today.

Todays program are better then programs of the recent past, and crush programs
of 2 or more years ago on the same hardware.



>
>Uri



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