Author: Oliver Y.
Date: 03:35:21 11/07/98
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21 years assumes a continuous exponential rate of improvement. It does not consider S. Kuhn's observations re discovery. Moreover, the sources of quantum changes are also increasing, ever interacting. (I.e., Biological, quantum computing) Perhaps Mark Young's guess is the most plausible, though Mr. Hyatt has provided the very useful baseline. I would love to know how much of a return would be obtained if these great programmers pooled their resources without reservation. How would the rate of improvement change? My guess is less than a factor of n, where n is the number of cooperators.
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