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Subject: Re: When will a deep Blue equivalent Be commercially Available?

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 06:59:23 11/07/98

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On November 07, 1998 at 06:35:21, Oliver Y. wrote:

>21 years assumes a continuous exponential rate of improvement.
>It does not consider S. Kuhn's observations re discovery.
>Moreover, the sources of quantum changes are also increasing, ever interacting.
>(I.e., Biological, quantum computing)
>Perhaps Mark Young's guess is the most plausible, though Mr. Hyatt has provided
>the very useful baseline.
>
>I would love to know how much of a return would be obtained if these great
>programmers pooled their resources without reservation.
>How would the rate of improvement change?
>
>My guess is less than a factor of n, where n is the number of cooperators.


Speaking for myself, progress was *much* faster back in the days of the annual
ACM events... because each year we all gathered around a table during the
tournament and talked about things we'd tried over the past year.  There's
much less of that today, although places like CCC and r.g.c.c still keep the
idea alive.



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