Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 14:04:22 11/07/98
Go up one level in this thread
On November 07, 1998 at 16:25:20, Graham Laight wrote: >On November 06, 1998 at 20:41:05, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On November 06, 1998 at 18:48:39, odell hall wrote: >> >>>I am interested in knowing, if even by a wild guess when a program with the >>>strength of deepblue will be available to the public? Five years? or maybe >>>three? >> >>Here's the basic math... DB searches about 250M nodes per second. Factor >>in its evaluation, which is probably at least 10x as complex as what is done >>in the micros, so this is 2500M nodes per second equivalent. A good micro >>today would do 250K nodes per second... 2500M/250K = 10,000... so we need >>to get a micro up to 10,000 times faster. If you figure the current doubling >>every 1.5 years, log2(10000)= 13-14. So 1.5 * 14 == 21 years, roughly. >> >>However, it is doubtful the doubling every 18 months is going to continue, >>so this is easily a lower bound on the time-frame... If you want to factor in >>new software improvements, this might get shaved a few years... but it isn't >>going to happen in 3-5 period... > >I'm sorry, but I feel the urge to disagree. > >The evidence of the play in the 1997 tournament against Kasparov is not >compelling enough to support this assertion. > >In game 1, it lost through disappointing play. > >In game 2, Gary resigned from a drawn position - a potential draw that some of >the micro software would not have allowed. this is wrong. *NO* micro can find either of those draws... Ed posted the analysis on his web site... A micro might play a different king move, but *not* because it sees the draw... > >In games 3, 4, and 5, DB looked beaten, but GK couldn't put it away. > >In game 6, GK messed up the opening, leading to his defeat. > >GK has previously been beaten by a 90 Mhz Pentium at G25 time setting. > >Since the GK tournament, DB has been cowering in fear - not being allowed to >play another man or machine in public. > >No better commercial chess computers until 2019? > >Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. I don't believe so, no. Based on 10+ years of experience in watching older and slower versions of deep thought absolutely shred micro programs, and factoring in the 100-fold improvement (at least) in the speed of DB over the older Deep Thought, I'd think that there might not be a better commercial program for even longer if my suspicion that doubling in speed every 18 months turns out to be true.. I don't see how it can continue... and without that performance boost, micros vs db would be totally hopeless...
This page took 0.01 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.