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Subject: Re: When will a deep Blue equivalent Be commercially Available?

Author: blass uri

Date: 06:20:28 11/09/98

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On November 09, 1998 at 09:05:04, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On November 09, 1998 at 00:15:39, blass uri wrote:
>
>>
>>On November 08, 1998 at 21:23:31, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On November 08, 1998 at 17:08:12, Amir Ban wrote:
>>>
>>>>On November 07, 1998 at 17:04:22, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>I don't believe so, no.  Based on 10+ years of experience in watching older
>>>>>and slower versions of deep thought absolutely shred micro programs, and
>>>>>factoring in the 100-fold improvement (at least) in the speed of DB over
>>>>>the older Deep Thought, I'd think that there might not be a better commercial
>>>>>program for even longer if my suspicion that doubling in speed every 18 months
>>>>>turns out to be true..  I don't see how it can continue...  and without that
>>>>>performance boost, micros vs db would be totally hopeless...
>>>>
>>>>Bob,
>>>>
>>>>Those 10+ years ended in 1993 or so, the last time that Deep Thought played and
>>>>won against a micro. As you well know, post-1993 versions of Deep Blue played
>>>>very few games against micros and won none of them.
>>>
>>>
>>>Don't know about you, but in 1994, I was in Cape May New Jersay, and watched
>>>the same old deep thought hardware blow everyone off the board.  Micros
>>>included...
>>>
>>>and I certainly don't understand your last phrase "played very few and won none"
>>>so I assume you can give some data.  I would invert that a bit...  it played
>>>very few but won *all*... the only exception was the game vs Fritz in Hong
>>>Kong...
>>>
>>>>
>>>>In 1993 the top micros were rated about 2300 (according to SSDF, the top four
>>>>are rated 2322, 2302, 2292, 2288), so dominating them doesn't prove superiority
>>>>over today's top programs. What's more, if yout play over old DT/DB games, it
>>>>seems to get into serious trouble in every other game it plays, but gets away
>>>>with it. There was a game it played as white against Zarkov in ACM (1992, I
>>>>think), which it made every attempt to lose, but Zarkov apparently didn't want
>>>>to win. Playing over this game, you realize it is lost not only against the top
>>>>programs of today, but even against the middle of the pack. I also wonder how
>>>>many of today's top programs would fail to exploit DB-Prototype's bad opening
>>>>against Star Socrates.
>>>
>>>Fine...  DT didn't play great.  But it blew everyone out tactically.  But what
>>>does that have to do with "deep blue"?  based on hardware two generations newer
>>>than the 1992 Deep Thought that was still unbeatable?  And let me remind you
>>>once again... final game of kasparov vs deep blue...  two commercial programs
>>>were given that position playing white, against an IM, and both lost badly...
>>
>>I do not think that the opening that kasparov played was the problem but the
>>fact that kasparov was not ready to play it.
>>I am not sure if deep blue can win against the same IM or against top program
>>with white.
>>
>>Uri
>
>I wouldn't argue at all although after Nxe6 (the position where the games with
>the IM started) black has problems... but so does white as he is a piece down
>and has to prove Ne6 is sound...
>
>But that really isn't the point in this game discussion.  The point that always
>comes up is "Kasparov blew the order of two consecutive moves and allowed Nxe6
>which resulted in an 'easy win' for white."  I still say that this is *not* an
>easy win, and used the commercial vs IM games someone posted on r.g.c.c early
>this year as evidence that white doesn't have an easy 1-0 time of it...
>
>The point was that game 6 wasn't over after Nxe6 IMHO.  The game stillhas to
>be won... and most (if not all) programs would still not have won playing
>Kasparov or even against a strong IM...

I think that most program will lose with white even if they play against
themselves.

I did an experiment with Genius3 and after Nxe6 fxe6 black won (I gave white 30
minutes per move and black 3 minutes per move).

The mistake of kasparov was that he was not ready to the sacrifice and
I think that he played in this game after he was surprised even worse than a
prepared IM.

Uri



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