Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 13:01:43 10/21/03
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On October 21, 2003 at 13:42:23, Dann Corbit wrote: >On October 21, 2003 at 10:00:54, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On October 20, 2003 at 23:32:37, Dave Gomboc wrote: >> >>>On October 16, 2003 at 18:49:55, Anthony Cozzie wrote: >>> >>>>1. Moore's law is NOT A LAW. Its going to come to an end by 2020, if not >>>>earlier. >>> >>>I doubt it. As each technology reaches its limits, a new one comes along. For >>>instance, by the time transistors hit the size limit, 3-D molecular computing >>>will have arrived. >>> >>>Dave >> >> >>QED moore's law ends. Note that Moore's law is _not_ about doubling the >>speed of a processor every 18 months to two years. It is about doubling >>the _density_ of electronic parts. > >However, a more general form of the principle is that every 18 months compute >power for the same number of dollars doubles. That effect may continue for some >time. For some parts, yes. IE memory density has a _long_ way to go before any theoretical max density is reached. Disk drives are even farther away from any boundary. But the raw CPU is nearing the end.
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