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Subject: Re: A loss difficult to calculate?

Author: Dieter Buerssner

Date: 11:00:58 10/23/03

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On October 22, 2003 at 16:41:53, Jeroen van Dorp wrote:

>8/2k2p2/7p/5p2/2p5/P7/6PP/4K3 b - - 0 38
>
>From my viewpoint, this game is lost for black. The king can't both attend the
>white a-pawn and simultaniously be in time back to the kingside to defend his
>kingside pawns and stop the march of white.
>
>It seems most programs start out with an equal evaluation, but as soon as you
>start playing these variations, they start to drop rapidly. From the start some
>favouring black, some favouring white a little, in the end playing through all
>variations it seems they all admit black is lost. The fail highs and fail lows
>are passing by in rapid sequences.

Some longer think of Yace-PB. The score consistently goes down for black, and
after some (perhaps still reasonable) time is rather significantly bad.

   7462159  12.223   0.12 17.  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 h5 5.a5 h4 6.a6
                               Kb6 7.Kxc4 Kxa6 8.Kd4 f5 9.Ke5 h3 10.gxh3 {0}
   9603850  15.704  -0.17 18t  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 h5 5.h4 f5 6.a5
                               Kb5 7.a6 Kxa6 8.Kxc4 f3H 9.gxf3H Kb6H 10.Kd5H
                               Kc7H 11.Ke5H Kd7H {0}
  13508614  22.502  -0.16 18t+ 1...Kc6 2.Kd2 h5 3.g3 Kb6 4.Kc3 Kc5 5.h4 Kd5
                               6.a4 f6 7.Kc2 Kd4 8.a5 Kc5 9.Kc3 Kb5 10.g4 {80}
  14184650  23.368  -0.16 18t  1...Kc6 2.Kd2 h5 3.Kc3H Kc5H 4.h4H Kd5H 5.a4H
                               Kc5H 6.a5H Kd6H 7.a6H f4H 8.a7H f3H 9.a8=QH
                               Ke5H {HT}
  15546675  24.940  -0.16 18.  1...Kc6 2.Kd2 h5 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.h4 Kd5 5.a4 Kc5
                               6.a5 Kd6 7.a6 f4 8.a7 f3 9.a8=Q Ke5
  21354238  37.551  -0.16 19t  1...Kc6 2.Kd2 h5 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.h4 Kd5 5.a4 f6
                               6.a5 Kc5 7.a6H Kb6H 8.Kxc4H Ka7H 9.Kb5H f4H
                               10.Ka5H Ka8H 11.Kb4H Kb8H 12.Kc4H Ka7H 13.Kd5H
                               Kb6H 14.Ke4H Kc5H 15.a7H f3H 16.a8=QH Kd6H {HT}
  22371742  38.867  -0.16 19.  1...Kc6 2.Kd2 h5 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.h4 Kd5 5.a4 f6
                               6.a5 Kc5 7.a6 Kb6 8.Kxc4 Ka7 9.Kb5 f4 10.Ka5
                               Ka8 11.Kb4 Kb8 12.Kc4 Ka7 13.Kd5 Kb6 14.Ke4 Kc5
                               15.a7 f3 16.a8=Q Kd6
  37887221  1:04.4  -0.30 20t  1...Kc6 2.h4 h5 3.g3 Kb5 4.Kd2 Ka4 5.Kc3 Kxa3
                               6.Kxc4 Kb2H 7.Kd5H Kc2H 8.Ke5H Kd3H 9.Kf4H Kd4H
                               10.Kg5H f4H 11.Kxf4H Kd5H 12.Kf5H f6H 13.Kxf6H
                               Ke4H 14.Kf7H Kd4H 15.Kg6H {-80}
  40107500  1:10.5  -0.29 20t+ 1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 h5 5.a5 h4 6.g3
                               fxg3 7.hxg3 hxg3 8.a6 g2 9.a7 g1=Q 10.a8=R
  40811705  1:11.6  -0.23 20t  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 h5 5.h4 f6
                               6.a5H Kb5H 7.a6H Kxa6H 8.Kxc4H Kb6H 9.Kd5H Kc7H
                               10.Ke4H Kd6H 11.Kxf4H Ke6H 12.Ke4H f5+H 13.Kf4H
                               Kf6H {0}
  42080294  1:13.1  -0.23 20.  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 h5 5.h4 f6 6.a5
                               Kb5 7.a6 Kxa6 8.Kxc4 Kb6 9.Kd5 Kc7 10.Ke4 Kd6
                               11.Kxf4 Ke6 12.Ke4 f5+ 13.Kf4 Kf6 {0}
  49779865  1:29.3  -0.33 21t  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 h5 5.h4 Kd5
                               6.a5 Kc5 7.a6 Kb6 8.Kxc4 Kxa6 9.Kc5 Ka5 10.Kd5
                               Kb5 11.Kd4H Kb4H 12.Ke5H Kc3H 13.Kxf4H Kd2H
                               14.Kf5H Ke1H 15.g3H Kf1H 16.Kf4H Ke1H 17.Ke5H
                               Kf2H 18.Kf4H Ke1H 19.Ke5H Kf2H 20.Kf4H Ke1HR {0}
  53684833  1:35.9  -0.33 21.  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 h5 5.h4 Kd5
                               6.a5 Kc5 7.a6 Kb6 8.Kxc4 Kxa6 9.Kc5 Ka5 10.Kd5
                               Kb5 11.Kd4 Kb4 12.Ke5 Kc3 13.Kxf4 Kd2 14.Kf5
                               Ke1 15.g3 Kf1 16.Kf4 Ke1 17.Ke5 Kf2 18.Kf4 Ke1
                               19.Ke5 Kf2 20.Kf4 Ke1 {0}
  69048184  2:03.2  -0.72 22t  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kd5 5.a5 Kc5
                               6.a6H Kb6H 7.Kxc4H Kxa6H 8.Kd5H Kb5H 9.h4H Kb6H
                               10.Ke5H Kc7H 11.Kxf4H Kd6H 12.Kf5H Kd7H 13.Kf6H
                               Ke8H 14.h5H Kd8H 15.Kf5H {HT} {0}
  84123372  2:24.6  -0.72 22.  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kd5 5.a5 Kc5
                               6.a6 Kb6 7.Kxc4 Kxa6 8.Kd5 Kb5 9.h4 Kb6 10.Ke5
                               Kc7 11.Kxf4 Kd6 12.Kf5 Kd7 13.Kf6 Ke8 14.h5 Kd8
                               15.Kf5 {HT} {0}
 108847847  3:14.6  -0.73 23t  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kd5 5.a5 Kc5
                               6.a6 Kb6 7.Kxc4 Kxa6 8.Kd5 Kb5 9.h4 Kb6H
                               10.Ke4H Kc5H 11.Kxf4H Kd6H 12.Kf5H Kd7H 13.g4H
                               Kd8H 14.h5H Kc8H 15.Kf4H Kd7H {0}
 116889929  3:26.4  -0.73 23.  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kd5 5.a5 Kc5
                               6.a6 Kb6 7.Kxc4 Kxa6 8.Kd5 Kb5 9.h4 Kb6 10.Ke4
                               Kc5 11.Kxf4 Kd6 12.Kf5 Kd7 13.g4 Kd8 14.h5 Kc8
                               15.Kf4 Kd7 {0}
 125393749  3:40.4  -1.13 24-- 1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kd5 5.a5 Kc5
                               6.h4 Kb5 7.h5 f6 8.a6 f5 9.a7 f3 10.a8=Q fxg2
                               11.Qa7 g1=R
 154130729  4:27.1  -1.20 24t  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kd5 5.a5 Kc5
                               6.h4 Kb5 7.h5 Kc5 8.a6 Kc6 9.Kxc4 Kc7H 10.Kd5H
                               Kb6H 11.Ke5H Kc6H 12.Kxf4H Kc5H 13.Kf5H Kb6H
                               14.a7H Kxa7H 15.g3H Kb6H 16.Kf6H Kc5H 17.Kxf7H
                               {HT} {-80}
 171665854  4:50.2  -1.20 24.  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kd5 5.a5 Kc5
                               6.h4 Kb5 7.h5 Kc5 8.a6 Kc6 9.Kxc4 Kc7 10.Kd5
                               Kb6 11.Ke5 Kc6 12.Kxf4 Kc5 13.Kf5 Kb6 14.a7
                               Kxa7 15.g3 Kb6 16.Kf6 Kc5 17.Kxf7 {HT} {-80}
 184412113  5:11.8  -1.60 25-- 1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kd5 5.a5 Kc5
                               6.a6 Kb6 7.Kxc4 Kc6 8.h4 h5 9.a7 Kb7 10.Kd5
                               Kxa7 11.Ke5 Kb8 12.Kf5 Kc8H 13.Kf6H Kb8H
                               14.Kxf7H Kc7H 15.Kg6H {HT} {0}
 188128088  5:17.2  -2.60 25-- 1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kd5 5.a5 Kc5
                               6.a6 Kb6 7.Kxc4 h5 8.Kd5 f3 9.gxf3 Ka7 10.h3 f6
                               11.h4 Kb6 12.Kd6 Ka7 13.Ke6 f5 {-80}
 213052205  6:00.3  -7.60 25-- 1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kd5 5.a5 Kc5
                               6.a6 Kb6 7.Kxc4 h5 8.Kd5 f6 9.Ke4 f5+ 10.Kxf5
                               Kc6 11.a7 h4 12.a8=Q+ Kc5
 434702290 12:09.9 -10.14 25t  1...f4 2.Kd2 Kb6 3.Kc3 Kc5 4.a4 Kb6 5.Kxc4 Ka5
                               6.h4H f3H 7.gxf3H f5H 8.Kd4H Kb4H 9.a5H f4H
                               10.a6H Kb3H 11.a7H Kc2H {HT} {-80}
 633114524 18:18.4 -10.13 25t+ 1...Kc6 2.h4 h5 3.Kd2 Kb5 4.Kc3 Ka4 5.Kxc4 f4
                               6.Kd5 f6H 7.Ke6H f3H 8.gxf3H f5H 9.Kd5H Kb3H
                               10.a4H f4H 11.a5H {HT} {-80}
1884590081 49:27.4  -9.42 25t  1...Kc6 2.Kd2 Kd6 3.a4 Kc6 4.Kc3 Kc5 5.h3 f4
                               6.h4 Kd5 7.a5 Ke4 8.a6 Kf5 9.a7 Kg4 10.a8=Q
                               Kxh4H {HT} {-761}
2155081575 55:57.3  -9.42 25.  1...Kc6 2.Kd2 Kd6 3.a4 Kc6 4.Kc3 Kc5 5.h3 f4
                               6.h4 Kd5 7.a5 Ke4 8.a6 Kf5 9.a7 Kg4 10.a8=Q
                               Kxh4 {HT} {-761}
2220660850 58:13.1  -9.82 26-- 1...Kc6 2.Kd2 Kd6 3.a4 Kc6 4.Kc3 Kc5 5.h3 f4
                               6.h4 Kd5 7.a5 Ke4 8.a6 Kf5 9.a7 Kg4 10.a8=Q Kg3
3298388730 1:23:35 -10.13 26t  1...Kc6 2.Kd2 Kd6 3.a4 Kc6 4.Kc3 Kc5 5.h3 f4
                               6.h4 Kd5 7.a5 Ke4 8.a6 Kf5 9.a7 Kg4 10.a8=Q
                               Kxh4 11.Qg8 f5 12.Qg6 h5 13.Qxf5 Kg3 14.Qxh5
                               {-921}
3423435378 1:26:47 -10.13 26.  1...Kc6 2.Kd2 Kd6 3.a4 Kc6 4.Kc3 Kc5 5.h3 f4
                               6.h4 Kd5 7.a5 Ke4 8.a6 Kf5 9.a7 Kg4 10.a8=Q
                               Kxh4 11.Qg8 f5 12.Qg6 h5 13.Qxf5 Kg3 14.Qxh5
                               {-921}

Horrible branching factor at depth 25, but not too surprising. Now lines, that
were easily pruned away earlier must be searched, to get a score.

P4, 2.53 GHz, 5-men TBs, bitbases, 250 MB hash. Part of the time, only little of
the CPU was available.

Regards,
Dieter





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