Author: David H. McClain
Date: 08:54:52 10/30/03
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On October 30, 2003 at 11:31:09, jefkaan wrote: >just being curious, i wonder what sort of opinions >people in this forum have about: >1) the (inc)accuracy of the scores of different engines >in middle/ (practical)endgame positions, and 2): >the variation the scores of different (top)engines >(besides scaling factors of a positional nature). > >Reasons for my question: >1) when playing standard with a reasonable engine >(yace) against top-engines i'm setting my >resign score lower every time, eg. when its >below 3 i usually already can consider resigning; >on the other hand, when i'm above +2, chances >my side/engine will be winning are above 90 % >(in lightning it can change a bit more, >especially in gambit type of play, but >then its just a matter of doubling the >win/lose score i guess). >2) when evaluating openings i wonder what >the best positional engine would be, maybe >Hiarcs9, maybe Shredder, i just dont know. >Altogether they are not so much different >in their judgments (ie numerical evaluations), i >suspect, may on average about 0.3 pawn standard >deviation difference in the cross correlations, >or whatever you could use in statistical sense >(although in some difficult positions >computers still sometimes are considerably >different ie more stupid than human IM/GM evaluators, >yep i know, or at least i believe that, at least >when its a GM above the 2800 scale or so) > >Thanks in advance for your thoughts on this >best regards, >jefk >PS and dont tell me btw i'm an idiot who >doesnt know anything about chess, i know >that as i've heard that already for some 10 >yrs now (mainly from a limited nr of people), >but i'm still learning, you know :) Unless you are personally a strong chess player, play the game out for a while longer. There is what is called a "Horizon effect" in that the chess engines is simply counting "beans" and do not always see the tactical advantage or disadvantage accurately at all stages of a game. I have personally played several games where I was ahead as much as + 3.08 and could do no better than a draw. A GM would have seen it but I cannot. I have also played quite a few games where a disadvantage of perhaps - 1.75 by evaluation turned into a win or a draw. Some chess engines are notorious for inaccurate evaluations (Shredder in particular). I am not a strong player so I cannot determine if my evaluation is really a win, draw or loss until sometime later in the game. You will know when this happens from experience. Depending on what engines your are using, evaluations are only a guide until the point of no return has been reached and normally an engine's evaluation will catch up with reality. DHM
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