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Subject: The Dangers of Positivism with Numbers

Author: Rolf Tueschen

Date: 04:53:42 11/02/03


With intention I avoided the use of the term fetichism in the subject line
because that could have stirred the emotions and would lead the attention in
false directions.

Since I am a real computerchess layman (in short newbie)I missed the discussions
about the interesting observation about the deminishing good of increasing depth
in plies for the decisions of the engine. In looking back I'm a little bit sad
that I wasn't there because otherwise perhaps I could have influenced the
outcome of the debate. Anyway, perhaps it's never too late.

I will keep this short and go media in res.

I quote the numbers from Rebel (coming from Ed Schroder?):

"Rebel maintains a table in SEARCH.TXT. It records every change of best-move per
ply. Here are the contents of one of my autoplayer PC's, it clearly shows the
decreasing importance per iteration."

>>                SEARCH OVERVIEW

>>                ===============
>>Depth    Moves          Moves        Big Score
>>      Searched        Changed        Changes
>> 1      83591        0 =  0.0%        0 =  0.0%
>> 2      82195    32077 = 39.0%    20786 = 25.3%
>> 3      81737    24348 = 29.8%    13022 = 15.9%
>> 4      80428    20153 = 25.1%    7033 =  8.7%
>> 5      80134    19940 = 24.9%    7969 =  9.9%
>> 6      79135    17344 = 21.9%    6014 =  7.6%
>> 7      78694    15903 = 20.2%    5940 =  7.5%
>> 8      77710    14294 = 18.4%    4918 =  6.3%
>> 9      75240    12888 = 17.1%    4769 =  6.3%
>>10      67180      8933 = 13.3%    2816 =  4.2%
>>11      54813      7240 = 13.2%    3223 =  5.9%
>>12      35267      3679 = 10.4%    2027 =  5.7%
>>13      19370      1531 =  7.9%    1363 =  7.0%
>>14      9860      597 =  6.1%      721 =  7.3%
>>15      5233      253 =  4.8%      428 =  8.2%
>>16      3128      119 =  3.8%      228 =  7.3%
>>17      2173        57 =  2.6%      151 =  6.9%
>>18      1573        41 =  2.6%      83 =  5.3%
>>19      1186        33 =  2.8%      64 =  5.4%
>>20        982        19 =  1.9%      38 =  3.9%
>>21        844        10 =  1.2%      30 =  3.6%
>>22        761        5 =  0.7%      14 =  1.8%
>>23        700        8 =  1.1%        9 =  1.3%
>>24        640        4 =  0.6%        7 =  1.1%

(End of quote)


As I said I missed the debate and I am a CC lay. All I have to say when I look
at the numbers above:

Contrary to the implication of a "decreasing importance per iteration" I defend
the following from a chess view:

1) Bearing in mind a specific limitation of depth for a particular program, a
decrease in numbers is no surprise. But in chess it's NOT the stats of mere
numbers that counts but the chess content of an evaluation in a particular
position.

2) the numbers above are just a mirror of the actual limitation of a program and
NOT representative for a sort of natural law of decreasing. One could also say
that the intelligence of actual programs is not sufficiently developped yet so
that the decisions in deeper depths could be given more importances.

3) From a chess view of course the programmers should guarantee that their
programs had a better chance to judge the outcome (the end) of their
calculations before darkness makes them totally blind. So all techniques which
could increase the numbers in higher depths by definition must have a
strengthening influence for the program.

Summary

Contrary to what the experts wanted to say with the above numbers when they
concluded that increasing depths would cause a decreasing importance for the
engines evaluations, I hold up the chess truth that more depth will always be
advantageous. So the naivety is dangerous if we accept the apparent decrease as
factual truth when in reality it's just a mirroring of the actual limitations of
chess programs.

Rolf



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