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Subject: Re: The Dangers of Positivism with Numbers

Author: Rolf Tueschen

Date: 01:45:25 11/03/03

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On November 02, 2003 at 10:42:42, Mike Byrne wrote:

>What is interesting here is how it steps down in pairs up to the 11 ply -
>perhaps giving credence to the old chess adage that every other odd ply is more
>beneficiary than the even ply.

Well done. Now let's try to extract something from these numbers that could be
helpful for other unsolved problems in the world. Let's start with weather
forecasts. <g>

Rolf



>
>On November 02, 2003 at 07:53:42, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>
>>"Rebel maintains a table in SEARCH.TXT. It records every change of best-move per
>>ply. Here are the contents of one of my autoplayer PC's, it clearly shows the
>>decreasing importance per iteration."
>>
>>>>                SEARCH OVERVIEW
>>
>>>>                ===============
>>>>Depth    Moves          Moves        Big Score
>>>>      Searched        Changed        Changes
>>>> 1      83591        0 =  0.0%        0 =  0.0%
>>>> 2      82195    32077 = 39.0%    20786 = 25.3%
>>>> 3      81737    24348 = 29.8%    13022 = 15.9%
>
>>>> 4      80428    20153 = 25.1%    7033 =  8.7%
>>>> 5      80134    19940 = 24.9%    7969 =  9.9%
>
>>>> 6      79135    17344 = 21.9%    6014 =  7.6%
>>>> 7      78694    15903 = 20.2%    5940 =  7.5%
>
>>>> 8      77710    14294 = 18.4%    4918 =  6.3%
>>>> 9      75240    12888 = 17.1%    4769 =  6.3%
>
>>>>10      67180      8933 = 13.3%    2816 =  4.2%
>>>>11      54813      7240 = 13.2%    3223 =  5.9%
>
>
>
>after 11 ply the pattern breaks ...



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