Author: Frank Schneider
Date: 22:46:23 11/15/03
Go up one level in this thread
On November 15, 2003 at 23:42:40, Derek Paquette wrote: >On November 15, 2003 at 22:09:51, Mike Byrne wrote: > >>On November 15, 2003 at 22:02:42, stuart taylor wrote: >> >>>I believe there are supercomputers that are much much faster than was the IBM >>>which beat Kasparov with Deeper Blue. >>>If so, what are we waiting for? >>>S.Taylor >> >>Even much faster computers will not solve chess. The possibilies of chess games >>exceeds the number of atoms in the universe and by the time it could even be >>theoretically solved, the Sun would have burned out and there will no humans >>living on earth. So one can safely say , chess will never be solved (white to >>move and win) by man using computers. >> >>That would not prevent a computer perhaps being the best in the world. > >This gives an indication of how many legal chess moves there are at each ply, > >2ply = 1,600 >3ply = 64,000 >4ply = 2,560,000 >5ply = 102,400,000 >6ply = 4,096,000,000 >7ply = 163,840,000,000 >8ply = 6,553,600,000,000 >9ply = 262,144,000,000,000 >10ply = 10,485,760,000,000,000 >11ply = 419,430,400,000,000,000 >12ply = 16,777,216,000,000,000,000 >13ply = 671,088,640,000,000,000,000 >14ply = 26,843,545,600,000,000,000,000 >15ply = 1,073,741,824,000,000,000,000,000 >16ply = 42,949,672,960,000,000,000,000,000 >17ply = 1,717,986,918,400,000,000,000,000,000 >18ply = 68,719,476,736,000,000,000,000,000,000 >19ply = 2,748,779,069,440,000,000,000,000,000,000 >20ply = 109,951,162,777,600,000,000,000,000,000,000 > > > >DEEP JUNIOR 8 YY >20ply = 715,580,000 >99.999999999999999999999349183781 % filtered moves > >SHREDDER 7.04 (strongest settings) >15ply = 38,826,000 > >99.999999999999996384046971797943 % filtered moves > >As you can see, your home pc computer isn't even looking close to 1% of the >moves, Note that you don't have to look at all moves - alpha beta about doubles the search depth without loosing correctness - You don't need to search the whole game tree to prove that a position (e.g. the starting position) is won. But I agree that it will take a very long time until chess is solved. Frank > >Deep Blue 1997 calculated 200,000,000 positions a second, >so if it wanted to look at a TRUE 7PLY, it would take 13 minutes and 30 seconds. > >I agree with Mike 100%, we'll never solve chess,
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