Author: Dieter Buerssner
Date: 13:00:44 11/22/03
Go up one level in this thread
On November 22, 2003 at 15:48:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On November 22, 2003 at 03:52:25, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote: > >>On November 22, 2003 at 00:55:50, Slater Wold wrote: >> >>>If the 233mhz doesn't die first, here's my prediction: >>> >>>You play MORE than 12 games. Crafty wins, but with so many draws, >it'll "cancel" any *real* proof the match might have given. >> >>Nonsense. If he plays on till the score DIFFERENCE is 6 points, >>it's staticstically a very valid result (somewhere >90 or >95% >>certainty). > >The point is that if Crafty wins 6 games after playing 6 games, you >get _one_ rating. If it wins 6 games out of 1000 games, you get >a totally different rating that doesn't prove much about the +6 game >edge... For the rating - yes. For the question "how certain can I be that the winner is really better", it depends. When the remaining 994 games were draw, the confidince level for Crafty beeing better (in the sense: will win any match) is just as good as in a plain 6-0 without any draws. The rating will not show that. The example might be not so good, because one really cannot calculate a rating difference with 6-0. But say 11-1 and 1011-1001 give the same confidence of the winner beeing better when in the first case it was +11 =0 -1 and in the second case +11 =2000 -1. The calculated rating difference (which tries to predict scores of matches, not the probability that one is better) will be very different again. Regards, Dieter
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