Author: Peter Berger
Date: 05:23:35 11/24/03
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On November 24, 2003 at 07:41:16, Daniel Clausen wrote: >On November 23, 2003 at 17:29:28, Peter Berger wrote: > >>For information about setup and rules: >>http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?329237 > >I quote from there: > >"Saying that the faster computer is about 10 times faster shouldn't be too >wrong." >and >"With this setup Crafty should be the clear favourite I suppose." > >I don't see why Crafty should be the clear favourite here. When I look at the >SSDF list, I see the following ratings: > > >Junior 8.0 256MB Athlon 1200 MHz 2784 >Crafty 18.12/CB 256MB Athlon 1200 MHz 2615 > >So there's a rating difference of 169 points. A factor of 10 is slightly more >than 3 times doubling and if we use 70 points for each doubling (which is the >upper limit in my opinion) we get the difference (3*70)-169=41 points. > >In a match where the first one to reach 6 wins is the winner, that's hardly >"clear favourite". It's more like using a dice to decide something. Or am I >missing something? > >Sargon There is nothing wrong with your maths. You could even add that the SSDF Crafty is playing with a Kure book and the ChessBase booklearner which might be worth some additional points. On the other hand there are also some other differences to the SSDF match that are impossible to evaluate for me. My calling Crafty the clear favourite was influenced by the challenge I meant to simulate. In case you re-read some of the older posts you'll find some very strong statements, that motivated me to do this experiment in the first place. If I had been sure who would win there would have been little sense in actually doing the match. Personally I expect Crafty to win, but if it will be by a significant margin - let's wait and see :). My interest in these kind of games started when I did some matches with ChessTiger on a PalmVx and weaker WinBoard programs on an Athlon1200 where I was surprised to see that ELO calculations still worked (namely predictions), even though the hardware difference was so extreme that you'd expect some serious errors. What is interesting about doing it with stronger programs is that I expect the out-searching to be a more serious problem once the relatively weaker program has reached a higher level of understanding - this is certainly true for Crafty. Or to say it like it is: I have no idea how the match will end :). Peter
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