Author: Drexel,Michael
Date: 20:43:28 12/08/03
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On December 08, 2003 at 14:33:05, Dieter Buerssner wrote: >On December 08, 2003 at 14:12:50, Drexel,Michael wrote: > >>Test results Crafty 19.06-Hiarcs 9: >> >>Crafty 19.06 (DC) - Hiarcs 9 88,5 - 161,5 (+44 =89 -117) >> (35,4%) (64,6%) 250 games >> >>Crafty 19.06 (CB) - Hiarcs 9 77,0 - 173,0 (+29 =96 -125) >> (30,8%) (69,2%) 250 games > >This still could be explained by random fluctuation and a bit of bad luck. A >Monte Carlo simulation (assuming independent games, of course - no learning >etc.) shows (I made up some number, parameters are for the first match: >88.5-161.5): > >Result of chess matches >Player A as white wins 18.8%, draws 38.3% and loses 43.0% >Player A as black wins 16.4%, draws 32.8% and loses 50.8% >Expected result: 35.34% (as white 37.89%, as black 32.79%) >A match of 250 games was simulated 1000000 times by a Monte Carlo method > > result probability p <= res. p > res. >[...] > 76.5 - 173.5 ( 30.6%): 0.4525% 2.3652% 97.6348% > 77.0 - 173.0 ( 30.8%): 0.5323% 2.8975% 97.1025% > ^^^^^^^ > 77.5 - 172.5 ( 31.0%): 0.6123% 3.5098% 96.4902% >[...] > 87.0 - 163.0 ( 34.8%): 3.3196% 42.8417% 57.1583% > 87.5 - 162.5 ( 35.0%): 3.3460% 46.1877% 53.8123% > 88.0 - 162.0 ( 35.2%): 3.3515% 49.5392% 50.4608% > 88.5 - 161.5 ( 35.4%): 3.3856% 52.9248% 47.0752% > 89.0 - 161.0 ( 35.6%): 3.3451% 56.2699% 43.7301% > 89.5 - 160.5 ( 35.8%): 3.3444% 59.6143% 40.3857% > 90.0 - 160.0 ( 36.0%): 3.2545% 62.8688% 37.1312% >[...] >Average result of simulation 35.3376% > >So still around 3% probability for a result of 77-173 or worse, when the real >strength is assumed 88.5-161.5. > >>Crafty 19.06 (DC) - Hiarcs 9 TC 74,5 - 125,5 (+39 =71 -90) >> (37,3%) (62,7%) 200 games > >This is a different setup for Hiarcs only? Yes, Hiarcs 9 TC is style=Agressive and Hypermodern checked. Rest is default. Michael > >Regards, >Dieter
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