Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 11:05:23 12/27/03
Go up one level in this thread
On December 27, 2003 at 12:36:32, Mridul Muralidharan wrote: >On December 27, 2003 at 09:04:05, Sune Fischer wrote: > >>On December 27, 2003 at 04:58:51, Mridul Muralidharan wrote: >> >>>4) Even with a 1:10 or 1:8 advantage crafty only barely manages to catch up or >>>beat these top order programs - so not much of a chance if they show up with the >>>above mentioned machines. >> >>I believe you are jumping to conclusions with "not much of a chance.." :) >> >>Crafty seems to be more than just barely holding on, it seems to be winning >>these matches at 8-10x speed advantage. >>That would mean Crafty still has chances even with "only" a 4x speed advantage. >> >>I'm not saying it would be a favorite but it's enough of a lottery to say that >>there are chances, and who knows what kind of hardware Bob could get his hands >>on ;) >> >>-S. >>>Mridul > >True - a good opening line which is favourale to crafty - and it could win even >with a 1 : 2 disadvantage :) >But it should be a good line - and this is like a jackpot - we cant count on >this ;) >On a even position - with lots of possibilities (not one of those dead drawn >boring opening lines) - it would be tougher. >If 1:8 just barely helps - then 1:4 is going to be a real challenge - also note >- it is going to be lower than 1:4 - not even 1:4 > >Mridul That's wrong. Pick your current box. I can _certainly_ find something that will be 4x faster than any box that showed up at the WCCC this year. And that is the reference point for this "test"... "would crafty be competitive." "competitive" does _not_ mean "win every game". "competitive" means having a significant chance of winning. Even 1 out of 3 is significant and 8:1 certainly gives better than that. You need to study the math of a Swiss event. The probability for winning each round gets multiplied to give the probability of winning every round. If someone has a 75% chance of winning each and every game, they have a vanishingly small chance of winning _all_ games. Which turns this into the aforementioned "lottery"... BTW .75 ^ 11 => .04% chance of winning all 11 rounds in Graz. :) And _nobody_ there had a 3:1 winning advantage over me on any hardware I would have used, the smallest machine would probably have been an 8-way opteron. That would have produced 12-22M nps. I'd take those odds... btw if you have 50% probability of winning a round, your chances of winning all 11 rounds is .0004%. Not that much different. Throw in one luck win vs one luck loss and there you go...
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