Author: Vincent Diepeveen
Date: 12:58:40 12/28/03
Go up one level in this thread
On December 27, 2003 at 14:05:23, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On December 27, 2003 at 12:36:32, Mridul Muralidharan wrote: > >>On December 27, 2003 at 09:04:05, Sune Fischer wrote: >> >>>On December 27, 2003 at 04:58:51, Mridul Muralidharan wrote: >>> >>>>4) Even with a 1:10 or 1:8 advantage crafty only barely manages to catch up or >>>>beat these top order programs - so not much of a chance if they show up with the >>>>above mentioned machines. >>> >>>I believe you are jumping to conclusions with "not much of a chance.." :) >>> >>>Crafty seems to be more than just barely holding on, it seems to be winning >>>these matches at 8-10x speed advantage. >>>That would mean Crafty still has chances even with "only" a 4x speed advantage. >>> >>>I'm not saying it would be a favorite but it's enough of a lottery to say that >>>there are chances, and who knows what kind of hardware Bob could get his hands >>>on ;) >>> >>>-S. >>>>Mridul >> >>True - a good opening line which is favourale to crafty - and it could win even >>with a 1 : 2 disadvantage :) >>But it should be a good line - and this is like a jackpot - we cant count on >>this ;) >>On a even position - with lots of possibilities (not one of those dead drawn >>boring opening lines) - it would be tougher. >>If 1:8 just barely helps - then 1:4 is going to be a real challenge - also note >>- it is going to be lower than 1:4 - not even 1:4 >> >>Mridul > >That's wrong. Pick your current box. I can _certainly_ find something that >will be 4x faster than any box that showed up at the WCCC this year. And that But nothing where crafty runs at, so i laugh loud for this! You cry some about a few minute tests you were allowed to do at a 32 processor shared memory bus Alpha. Show the logs, no one is believing you here! Note the crafty-junior match, i score at home 95% against junior in tests equal hardware, you have problems getting 50% against an outdated PII. However when they show up at world champs they use quite a better book... ...try to beat that i'd say! So show up at world champs instead of spitting all this crap here. Everyone i knows wins from other programs when they test at home. But at world champs they show up with their best version and best book and then beating everyone is a lot harder!! All other tournaments usually get organized, except IPCCC are a joke further. >is the reference point for this "test"... "would crafty be competitive." > >"competitive" does _not_ mean "win every game". "competitive" means having >a significant chance of winning. Even 1 out of 3 is significant and 8:1 >certainly gives better than that. You need to study the math of a Swiss >event. The probability for winning each round gets multiplied to give the >probability of winning every round. If someone has a 75% chance of winning >each and every game, they have a vanishingly small chance of winning _all_ >games. Which turns this into the aforementioned "lottery"... > >BTW .75 ^ 11 => .04% chance of winning all 11 rounds in Graz. :) > >And _nobody_ there had a 3:1 winning advantage over me on any hardware I >would have used, the smallest machine would probably have been an 8-way >opteron. That would have produced 12-22M nps. > >I'd take those odds... > >btw if you have 50% probability of winning a round, your chances of winning >all 11 rounds is .0004%. Not that much different. Throw in one luck win >vs one luck loss and there you go...
This page took 0.01 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.