Author: Mike Byrne
Date: 10:59:55 12/29/03
Go up one level in this thread
On December 29, 2003 at 13:23:33, Sandro Necchi wrote: >On December 29, 2003 at 12:46:47, Luis Smith wrote: > >>>I do agree too. >>> >>>Crafty has no realistic chances to win a WCCC. >>> >>>Sandro >> >>IMO only Bob can know this for sure. I think people either over estimate the >>commercials, or underestimate Crafty. After all at the WCCC's only 11 games >>were played, who knows what could have happened in that time, especially with >>the kind of hardware that Dr. Hyatt could get. > >No, Bob does not know this. >He is a "little outdated" on this matter. > >At the 2003 WCCC there were 3 favorites (Shredder, Fritz and Junior), 2 possible >outsiders (Brutus and Diep). > >Based on my experience I gave these chances, before the tournament started: > >Shredder 35% (because of the slower hardware) >Fritz 30% >Junior 25% >Brutus 7% >Diep 3% >rest 0% The rest of the field is never 0%. Any bookie can tell you that. It might be 15 to 1, 30 to 1 -- even a 100 to 1 . but the chances are never "zero" - that would make the payoff infinity. Besides, the tournamnament format , imo, is stupid. An 11 round swiss with 14 or so participants? - they should make a "normal" swiss (say 5 rounds with 14 participants or a round robin - add just 2 more rounds with 14 participants. I forget exactly the number of rounds and participants, but I'm not far off. > >Do you really believe Crafty is better than the average rest? I do not. He would >have to rely on too many bugs on the competition. This is not realistic. > >Of course everybody can say anything different, but in reality this is the >situation. > >Someone said that the WCCC is more or less a lottery. >OK, than can someone can explaing why since 1996 only Junior and Shredder won? > >Sandro
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